674
FXUS64 KLIX 092154
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 350 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
AN ADVISISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHEN A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
THE PRIMARY IMPACT AND FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS POSITION WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ADVECTING A MARITIME AIRMASS INLAND, FURTHER SATURATING THE
COLUMN FROM ALREADY MOIST LOW LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WON'T CHANGE MUCH
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. FOG
COVERAGE LAST NIGHT WAS QUITE EXTENSIVE WHICH GIVES MORE CONFIDENCE
TO GO AHEAD WITH A PREEMPTIVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER
LAND AND SHELF WATERS. SHOULD START TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROPPING
MUCH SOONER THAN 'TYPICAL', MEANING BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CARRYING OVER WELL THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WITH A NEARLY ALL DAY FOG EVENT ALONG THE MS AND LA
COASTLINES.
OUTSIDE OF FOG, ONLY OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER HEADLINES FALLS UNDER
TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WITH THE APEX OF THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSSING
THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY. THAT'LL CONTINUE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80, WHICH IS CLOSE TO RECORDS.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT SOMEWHAT BUT THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAVE
AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON TEMPS. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THATS ABOUT IT. THE BIGGER STORY COMES THIS
WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SETUP THAT'D BE JUST RIGHT FOR
A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THEY SHOW AS WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH CROSSING INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE BASE OF
THAT TROUGH IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL RUN RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS GOING RIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN LA AND CENTRAL MS. THAT PUTS THE CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN REALLY RAMP UP AS THE DEEPENING LOWS APPROACH. SHEAR/HELICITY
VALUES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE TO STRONG
SEVERE(WIND/TORNADO) BUT LIMITED BY INSTABILITY. WILL BE IMPORTANT TO
SEE HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES THIS WEEK BUT PROBABLY AN EVENT TO REALLY
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SINCE IT'D BE AN OVERNIGHT ONE AND ON A VERY
BUSY WEEKEND IN TERMS OF MARDI GRAS ACTIVITIES.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
ALL TERMINALS HAVE FINALLY GOTTEN TO MVFR. CU FIELD SPREADING EAST
ACROSS LA AND MS HAS BEEN HOLDING ON TO THOSE SUB-3KFT CEILINGS.
THOSE WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGER IMPACT THOUGH COMES AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. SOME TERMINALS MAY
START SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITIES NOT LONG AFTER 00Z WITH MOST BY
AROUND 06Z. FROM THEN UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z, IFR TO VLIFR IS EXPECTED
AND MAY HANG AROUND MUCH LONGER THAN THAT AT TERMINALS NEAR COASTAL
AREAS.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE DENSE FOG TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY SITTING
RIGHT AT TO JUST ABOVE THE WATER TEMPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
IN PLACE ALL WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF THE
REGION. THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AGAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND NOON TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES.
MEFFER
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page