611
FXUS64 KLIX 100544
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 2 PM CST FOR
MARINE AREAS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS/MORNINGS.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHEN A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING, WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GETTING PUMPED UP AND OVER THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE COVERED MOST OF THE GULF, WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAST
NIGHT AND TONIGHT IS THAT WE DON'T HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT EASIER TONIGHT, BUT
HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. WE'VE
ALREADY GOT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT AND SEE ZERO
REASON TO MESS WITH IT.
THE BAJA UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FOG AGAIN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ONLY IF WE CAN GET RID OF CLOUD
COVER, WHICH IS IN QUESTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ROUGHLY 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LOOK TO BE
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE IN THE LATEST BATCH OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS SHOULDN'T BE ANY
COOLER THAN THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
BRIEF RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE
QUITE A BIT MORE GOING FOR IT THAN THE ONE THAT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE DEFINITELY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY APPEARS SUFFICIENT AS WELL. THERE'S A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR EVENTS GOING ON NEXT WEEKEND, AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHETHER THOSE EVENTS ARE
ABLE TO TAKE PLACE WITHOUT INTERRUPTION. CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE
DEPICTIONS OF THE WEATHER INDICATE THAT DAYTIME ACTIVITIES PROBABLY
WON'T BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED, BUT SATURDAY EVENING ONES COULD BE.
WE'RE STILL 5 DAYS OUT, SO IT IS LIKELY STILL TOO SOON TO LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED
THAT AT LEAST SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOW ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WOULD PRODUCE RATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS REALLY THE
ONLY ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THROUGH FAT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH LONGER RANGE MODELING INDICATING THAT TREND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
ALL TERMINALS WERE VFR UP UNTIL ABOUT 15 MINUTES BEFORE FORECAST
ISSUANCE, WHEN FOG STARTED DEVELOPING AT KASD, WITH THE VISIBILITY
BEING RATHER VARIABLE, BUT PRIMARILY LIFR. STARTING TO SEE HINTS
AT OTHER TERMINALS AND BEYOND THE TOP OF THE HOUR, DO EXPECT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DETERIORATE AT OTHER TERMINALS.
LIKELY TO IFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT MOST TERMINALS, AND PERIODS OF LIFR
FROM THAT POINT THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE.
SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY NEAR AND BEYOND 06Z WEDNESDAY IF
HIGH CLOUDS DON'T INTERFERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE THREAT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND AGAIN
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY, AND DAY SHIFT IN THE MORNING WILL
REASSESS THE NEED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE'S
ALREADY BEEN SOME FOG OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO,
AND NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY APPEAR NECESSARY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES, ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THE STRONGER MEMBERS OF
ENSEMBLES VERIFY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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