582
FXUS64 KLIX 102155
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 346 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
PORTIONS OF SELA AND COASTAL MS PLUS SOME MARINE AREAS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS/MORNINGS.
- A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE PRIMARY IMPACT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. COVERAGE LAST NIGHT WAS QUITE EXTENSIVE AND DENSE BUT
AM NOT AS CONFIDENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. DID, HOWEVER, ISSUED A
PREEMPTIVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
GREATEST WHICH IS AREAS AROUND LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
OUTSIDE OF FOG, ONLY OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER HEADLINES FALLS UNDER
TEMPS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING
ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
SOMEWHAT, BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT FORCING/MOISTURE REMAIN MODEST AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. REGARDLESS, STILL LOOK AT LOWS IN THE
50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THIS FORECAST PERIOD COMES THIS WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN THAT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A LOCAL COOL-SEASON SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. MODELS
DEPICT A PRETTY UNIQUE EVOLUTION FROM TODAY TO FRIDAY. THERE ARE 2
CLOSED UPPER LOWS IN THE EASTERN PAC, ONE WEST OF OREGON AND THE
OTHER FARTHER SOUTH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS,
THE SOUTHERN ONE DRIFTS EAST WHILE THE NORTHERN ONE DROPS SOUTH.
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WED, THESE FEATURES WILL BE SIDE BY
SIDE. THE 24-36 AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE FASCINATING TRANSITION TAKES
PLACE. MODELS SHOW THEM BEGINNING A FUJIWARA INTERACTION AND
ULTIMATELY PHASE INTO A SINGLE SYSTEM, COMING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHAT'S INTERESTING IS TO THE NORTH IS ZONAL FLOW, WHICH MEANS THE
THAT UPPER LOW'S EASTERN PROGRESSION IS MOSTLY CARRIED OUT VIA
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THAT DEFINITELY DOES BRING A LITTLE POTENTIAL
QUESTIONING OF IF MODELS HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THAT FEATURE'S
EASTWARD SPEED AND THUS TIMING OF WHEN IT'D REACH THE CWA.
AS THIS UPPER LOW REACHES NORTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING, THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/DEEPENING
IS FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MS. IF THIS TRACK VERIFIES, MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE, THOUGH NOT UNCOMMON FOR COOL-
SEASON SEVERE WX EVENT. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FLOW OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES IS GENERALLY WHAT MODELS DEPICT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS 50+ KT FLOW NEAR 850 MB AND 60+ KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH
AMPLE HELICITY. LOOKING AT THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE, INTO
COMPLETELY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT MORESO ABOUT 90 DEGREES OF
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB+. ALL OF THIS WOULD BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH A
VERSION OF SQUALL LINE OR QLCS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
LIMITING. EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S; THE NOCTURNAL TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY KEEP
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MODEST. THATS WHAT GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AND
METEOROLOGICALLY MAKES SENSE. THAT SAID, THIS IS THE TYPE OF HIGH-
SHEAR/LOW-CAPE ENVIRONMENT THAT CAN STILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND
QLCS TORNADOES WITH FORCED ACCENT FROM THAT UPPER LOW BEING SO CLOSE
TO THE CWA. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REALLY HASN'T CHANGED
MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST INTO ALABAMA.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT EVENT ON A VERY BUSY WEEKEND IN
TERMS OF MARDI GRAS ACTIVITIES, REALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS ONE.
DUE TO THE FACT THIS SYSTEM TAKES SUCH A LOW LATITUDE TRACK, WE
REALLY WON'T SEE MUCH OF A DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. SURE
IT'LL BE DRIER BUT STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
ALL TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITIES
TONIGHT BUT DO THINK THE POTENTIAL IS DOWN A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING. CU FIELD SPREADING EAST ACROSS LA AND MS IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO FADE. A DECENT CHANCE FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT/MODERATE FOG WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME TERMINALS MAY START SEEING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES NOT LONG AFTER 06Z WITH WORST CONDITIONS 10Z-13Z. IFR
TO VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED AND MAY HANG AROUND MUCH LONGER THAN THAT
AT TERMINALS NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS
CONFIDENT AS LAST NIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY SITTING RIGHT AT TO
JUST ABOVE THE WATER TEMPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE
THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AGAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES.
MEFFER
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR LAZ057>060-064-068>070-076>084-086>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MSZ077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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