168
FXUS64 KLIX 111708
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1108 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVERALL
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS FOR AREAS OF
THE CWA, BUT THESE SIGNALS ARE NOT AS STRONG. AS A RESULT, WE HELD
OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1 MILE. GENERALLY, EXPECT MILD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. MSW
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE MAIN PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PRETTY UNCERTAIN, GIVEN WE ARE
STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT. BUT GENERALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT (APPROACHING THE AREA AROUND 9/10PM)
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (LEAVING THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING).
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES OF A FEW HOURS IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS, BUT WE FEEL THAT THESE WILL RESOLVE AS WE GET A LITTLE
CLOSER AND CAN INCORPORATE SOME OF THE CAMS AND SHORT-RANGE
MODELS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-55, BUT THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE A STRONG
LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
LOOKING AT THE MODEL TRENDS. THERE IS PLENTY OF HELICITY AND HIGH
SHEAR (50+KTS). THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR RIGHT NOW WILL BE THE
INSTABILITY. SO, TO SUM UP, THIS WILL BE A HIGH-SHEAR, LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR OUR AREA.
GENERALLY, THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY INDICATIVE OF THE
THREATS TO EXPECT. THE WIND PROFILE IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL IN
GENERAL, BUT THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD CHANGE THIS IN COMING
DAYS. IF THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MORE UNIFORM, THEN THE THREATS
WILL MORE LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A QCLS/SQUALL LINE. AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WOULD BE LOW, BUT NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. BUT IT
SEEMS MORE LOGICAL GIVEN THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE THAT THERE COULD
BE AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO IN THE SQUALL LINE, BUT WE WOULD NOT
BE EXPECTING DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE, LOOKING AT CURRENT
MODE OF THE SYSTEM. AND WE WANT TO NOTE THAT THIS COULD
DEFINITELY CHANGE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ALOFT, SO THIS NEEDS TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY AND
VULNERABILITY ADDED IN THE AREA DUE TO MARDI GRAS ACTIVITIES.
ADDITIONALLY, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE STRONG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHSHORE, SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY,
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO
30MPH. THESE FORECAST WINDS WERE INCREASED OFF THE NBM
SIGNIFICANTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW WIND BIASES IN THE MODEL FOR
THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHSHORE. WINDS SHOULD START TO
EASE BY 4PM SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY IF THIS
FORECAST HOLDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ADDED CONCERNS FOR THE PUBLIC
DUE TO OUTDOOR EVENTS AND MARDI GRAS.
LOOKING PAST SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND MILD OVERALL WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT THIS
TIME. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM FOG. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AND AGAIN THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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