027
FXUS64 KLIX 122324 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
524 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MID-DAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS (60+MPH) AND
LIGHTNING. AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- MAIN TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVERALL
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S FRIDAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE
LOW COMPARED TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. VISIBILITIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 1-2SM AT WORST OVER LAND, SO WE HELD OFF ON
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OVERALL, EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODEL TRENDS WITH
THE TIMING AND SEVERITY OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT GENERALLY, AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NO RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE SHOWERS.
THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT THE MODELS, SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SHEAR AND HELICITY BOTH
LOOK FAVORABLE OVERALL WITH 50+KTS OF SHEAR. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL, WHICH INDICATES A MORE QLCS/SQUALL LINE
MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THE INSTABILITY. SO, IN SUMMARY, THIS WILL BE A HIGH
SHEAR-LOW CAPE SETUP. AS A RESULT, DAMAGING WINDS (60+MPH) AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN
EMBEDDED BRIEF, SPINUP TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND CONDITIONAL ON
THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING THE EVENT, WHICH WE SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF THE TIMING, THE TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER TODAY THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, WHICH PRESENTS SEVERAL CHALLENGES AND CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ADDED VULNERABILITIES DUE TO MARDI GRAS. THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA COMPLETELY
BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE VULNERABILITIES AND
SENSITIVITIES THIS WEEKEND WITH VARIOUS OUTDOOR EVENTS AND MARDI
GRAS, WE HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS TIMING VERY
CLOSELY. EVERYONE IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WE
DO WANT PEOPLE TO PAY ATTENTION SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WE WANT TO
MAKE SURE PEOPLE ARE NOT LOSING TRACK OF SUNDAY EITHER, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE SLOWER TRENDS IN THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS.
CONSEQUENTLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
KEY POPULATED AREAS IN THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. FOR EXAMPLE, A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW DEPICT THE TIMING OF THE LINE FOR NEW
ORLEANS TO BE AFTER 6AM SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT THAN WE WERE ORIGINALLY THINKING YESTERDAY. SIMILARLY,
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST, THE LINE IN RECENT RUNS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL MS COUNTIES BETWEEN 6A-NOON TIMEFRAME. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN THE LINE COULD BE EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENT
THINKING, EVEN. IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE START TO
SEE THE CAMS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS START TO COME IN TOMORROW AND
AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY NIGHT. MAKE SURE TO KEEP CHECKING
BACK IN FREQUENTLY FOR CHANGES AS THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES, ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING.
ONE OTHER IMPORTANT HAZARD FOR SUNDAY THAT WE WANTED TO NOTE IS
REGARDING THE GRADIENT WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. GENERALLY, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35MPH. THESE FORECAST WINDS WERE INCREASED
OFF THE NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW WIND BIASES IN THE MODEL FOR
THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHSHORE. WINDS SHOULD START TO
EASE BY 4PM SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY IF THIS
FORECAST HOLDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ADDED CONCERNS FOR THE PUBLIC
DUE TO OUTDOOR EVENTS AND MARDI GRAS.
LOOKING PAST SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND MILD OVERALL WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT THIS
TIME. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO IFR OR LOWER
RANGES. VIS WILL BE A BIT LESS OF A PROBLEM FOR GPT AND MCB, BUT
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. INLAND TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE FASTER, BUT
BY 18Z MOST SITES SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE
THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OR EVEN POTENTIALLY GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW
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