535
FXUS64 KLIX 130433
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1033 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MID-DAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS (60+MPH) AND
LIGHTNING. AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 MPH LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE CWFA AND THE WEAK FRONT
THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL HANGING
AROUND THE I10 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE DESPITE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT HAS KEPT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND IN
FACT, LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY TRY TO BUILD CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH FOG EARLY FRIDAY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADV ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I10/12 CORRIDOR.
FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY IN THE SENSE OF MORE CLOUDINESS
HANGING AROUND. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO WITH THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ROAMING AROUND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
EVENTUALLY, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND WE WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO
A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL HELP THE SURFACE
FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AWAY FROM THE REGION.
UPSTREAM WE WILL BE FOLLOWING A FAIRLY ROBUST H5 SHORTWAVE FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE LEESIDE TROUGH SHOULD TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY DOESN'T LOOK TOO WET, BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
QPF SIGNAL TO MENTION SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF WARM
MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM DEEP IN THE GULF. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
EYES WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION. THE GLOBALS AND THE FIRST VIEW OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW OVERALL A BIT OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A QLCS ROLL THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING OR
SO SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE GLOBALS AREN'T VERY BULLISH
WITH INSTABILITY. SURE, THERE IS DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT
WITH LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY, WE WILL CALL IT A CONDITIONAL RISK.
THAT SAID, WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS ONE. A
STRONG 40-50KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE E TO NE BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE
QLCS FOR MESOVORT (EMBEDDED TORNADO) POTENTIAL.
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY THE COLD CORE ULL MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTH MS AND INTO SOUTH AL. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF OUR CWFA, HOWEVER, IF THERE IS ANY DAYTIME HEATING IN A
DRY SLOT THAT MAY DEVELOP THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD...THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WOULD PROBABLY
BRING SOME SMALL HAIL. AGAIN, THIS POTENTIAL LARGELY LOOKS TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH, BUT WOULDN'T BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
1/3RD OF THE CWFA TO GET ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEHIND THE LINE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED,
WHICH COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS TO LOCAL MARDI GRAS CELEBRATIONS IN
TERMS OF GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS JUNCTURE, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR WINDS GUSTING ON THE SOUTHSHORE.
GOING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION STAGE
EAST LEAVING US WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A QUICK WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE
BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
(FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THE SIGNAL FOR LOW VISIBILITIES HAS INCREASED SINCE THE 00Z
UPDATE. DENSE FOG WITH IFR AND LIKELY EVEN LOWER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
ONLY CURRENT ISSUE IS SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DUE INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SO EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND
CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GOING INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORKWEEK LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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