578
FXUS64 KLIX 131834
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1234 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MID-DAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS (60+MPH) AND
LIGHTNING. AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 MPH LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
- ONE MORE ROUND OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES
FROM BOTH THE RRFS AND HREF INDICATE A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN
THESE HIGH PROBABILITIES, HAVE OPTED TO PRE- EMPTIVELY ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 9 AM.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASED TRAFFIC TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
MANY MARDI GRAS RELATED ACTIVITIES SCHEDULED TO TAKE PLACE
TOMORROW, AND THIS LED FURTHER CREDENCE TO ISSUING A PROACTIVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS LATE TOMORROW MORNING, SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH EXPECTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG 50
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS AT 850MB IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES.
A SQUALL LINE IS ALSO PROJECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW APPROACHES, AND ALL OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVELY AIDED MODELS ARE LINING UP WELL
WITH THE PEAK TIMING OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LINE WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST
QUICKLY WITH THE BATON ROUGE METRO EXPERIENCING THE LINE AROUND 2
TO 5 AM, NEW ORLEANS AROUND 4 TO 7 AM, AND GULFPORT AROUND 6 TO 9
AM. A REVIEW OF MODEL SOUNDING DATA INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT LACK
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE. THIS WILL
GREATLY INHIBIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ONLY
PARAMETER THAT REALLY STANDS OUT IS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF 200 TO
300 M2/S2 IN THE LOWEST 3 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DECENT
HELICITY WILL SUPPORT SOME ROTATION IN THE LINE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
ANY WEAK BOWING SURGES TAKE PLACE, AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE. THUS, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADIC SPIN-UPS TO OCCUR AS
THE LINE PROGRESSES EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD FULLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON ON
SUNDAY, AND A SURGE OF STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO RAPIDLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15 TO
20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BUT THE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY FALL OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS HIGH WILL HAVE A PACIFIC BASED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO
THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL BE DRY AT AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT OF AROUND 30
TO 35 DEGREES, AND THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN DECENTLY HIGH AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, SO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING INTENSIFIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AT HDC, ASD, NEW, AND MSY WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ALL OF THE TERMINALS
IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z. THIS BREAK IN IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IMPACTS THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GPT WILL SEE THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS FORM FIRST AS SEA FOG MOVES IN FROM OFFSHORE WITH
CONDITIONS FALLING INTO IFR RANGE BY 03Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z AS
THE FOG BANK SPREADS INLAND. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH 15 TO 16Z BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW
AND WINDS WILL EXCEED 20 KNOTS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY EASING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THESE STRONGER WINDS
PERSIST, SEAS WILL BUILD TO OVER 7 FEET AND TURN ROUGH RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALLER CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THIS THREAT.
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS
RETURN AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE GULF
SOUTH.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page