222
FXUS64 KLIX 140536
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MID-DAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS (60+MPH) AND
LIGHTNING. AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 MPH LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
- DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION. NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES, WHICH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL LANDBASED ZONES. IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE VISIBILITIES
TO IMPROVE, BUT EVENTUALLY FOG WILL LIFT AND BECOME MORE OF A LOW
STATUS DEAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM DUE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
BY FAR THE HIGHEST POPS WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FEATURE
MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION WITH THE PARENT TROUGH PINCHING OFF INTO
AN ULL AND FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWFA.
THE STORM IMPACTS LOOK ABOUT THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS (ESPECIALLY HRRR) SHOW A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN THE INSTABILITY, BUT OVERALL STILL RATHER LACKLUSTER
WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY EARLY ON WHEN THE EXPECTED QLCS
ENTERS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE THE WORST
OF THE WEATHER WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY VALUES
DROP FURTHER EAST IN THE CWFA. WHAT ISN'T LACKLUSTER IN THE LEAST
IS THE WIND SHEAR. A VERY ROBUST H85 LLJ DEVELOPS (GENERALLY 50-60
KNOTS OVERNIGHT). THIS SIGNALS A DAMAGING WIND ELEMENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA (AGAIN STRONGER INSTABILITY WEST OF I55, SO THE
POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST THERE, BUT A CONDITIONAL WIND THREAT WILL
RESIDE FOR LOCATIONS EVEN EAST). GIVEN THE BULK SHEAR VECTORS ANY
LOCAL SURGES/BOWS IN THE QLCS AT LEAST E OR NE ORIENTED BOWING
SEGMENTS MAY LEAD TO A MESOVORT (TORNADO) POTENTIAL EMBEDDED.
HODOGRAPHS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN QLCS,
HOWEVER, AS STATED INSTABILITY IS WEAK. DESPITE THE WEAK CAPE
VALUES, UPPER SUPPORT MAY AID UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR WEAK LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ON
THE LOW SIDE IN TERMS OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW BECOME NEARLY STACKED AND MOVE EAST
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. ALONG THE TRACK
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS UNDER A VERY COLD
UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS WITH SURFACE HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A SMALL
HAIL THREAT, BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS NEARLY ALL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY
RELAXES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO
OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING HOURS AND FOR NOW
APPEAR TO BE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT LEAST NON-CONVECTIVE
WINDS. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE LONG TERM CAN MOSTLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES AND MORE
SPECIFICALLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TO START, THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THERE IS STILL GOING TO BE SURFACE HEATING DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE RATHER "MILD" IF YOU WILL WITH MOST OF THE
REGION REMAINING IN THE 50S. WE WILL NOT DROP MUCH BECAUSE THE
ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE
SO THERE WILL BE A DISCONNECT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO KEEP
THINGS MILD.
H5 RIDGING IS THE RULE GOING INTO MIDWEEK. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL
AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY AS WE GO DEEPER INTO THE
MEDIUM RANGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INITIATE AN ONSHORE FLOW...AND THEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY MOISTURE, SEA FOG AND
ADVECTIVE LANDBASED FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS
OVER THE GULF. WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, LOW STATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS IN THE RICH RETURN FLOW.
COVERED THIS POTENTIAL LATE IN THE PERIOD OF LOW-END POPS.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE TIDAL LAKES WILL AGAIN APPROACH AND EXCEED
80F FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
MORE LOW CIGS AND DENSE FOG LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO
MID TO LATE MORNING. AGAIN, IFR OR LOWER CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY VFR WILL BE REALIZED IN TIME. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. HOWEVER, AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL
EXCEED 20 KNOTS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY EASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THESE STRONGER WINDS PERSIST, SEAS WILL
BUILD TO OVER 7 FEET AND TURN ROUGH RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALLER CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS RETURN AS A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE GULF. (PG/FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...PG/RDF
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