674
FXUS64 KLIX 141858
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1258 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT. MAIN THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS (60+MPH) AND LIGHTNING. AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 MPH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES BE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF
A QUASI- LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORTUNATELY, TIMING OF THIS LINE HAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE AS ALL OF THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTIVELY AIDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LINE WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN ABOUT 11 PM AND 6 AM. THE BATON ROUGE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. NEW
ORLEANS IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM, AND
GULFPORT IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6AM. BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THIS CONVECTIVE LINE, LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COLD
POOL INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSITS
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SINCE THE TIMING PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL SET, THE
FOCUS NOW TURNS TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS LINE. THE
BIGGEST DRIVER OF OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET THAT WILL FORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. THIS
LOW LEVEL JET WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z AT 60 TO
70 KNOTS. AS THIS OCCURS, DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES WILL PEAK
AROUND 300 M2/S2 IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SPEED
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THUS, ANY DEEPER CONVECTION
THAT FORMS WILL NOT ONLY HAVE A TILTED UPDRAFT ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTION TO PERSIST LONGER, BUT THE UPDRAFTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
MESO-CYCLONIC ROTATION AS THEY DEEPEN. THIS WILL GREATLY ENHANCE
THE RISK OF BOWING SEGMENTS FORMING ALONG THE LINE, AND THESE
BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADIC SPIN UPS. NOW FOR THE CAVEAT THAT COULD
LIMIT OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT, A LACK OF LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO
AROUND 6.0C/KM, A LINGERING STABLE LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60
DEGREES AT THE SURFACE COULD INHIBIT MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS
AND TORNADIC ROTATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE TONIGHT. THUS,
ONLY THE STRONGEST REAR INFLOW JET AND MESO-CYCLONIC ROTATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE EVENTS FAIRLY ISOLATED
TONIGHT. IF INSTABILITY WERE MORE FAVORABLE, WE WOULD VERY LIKELY
BE IN A SEVERE RISK CATEGORY OR TWO HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT
SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY STARTING THIS EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
FORMS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. TOMORROW, IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW AS A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA. BY MONDAY,
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BENEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE CAN BE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO NOT COOL MUCH AS THE AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE AREA IS PACIFIC BASED. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARMER
THAN AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BOTH TOMORROW AND
MONDAY AND LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS MAY EVEN WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S. AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS, DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE LOW 50S INTO THE LOW 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES, CLEAR SKIES, AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TO
OCCUR, THE RISK OF FOG FORMING WILL INCREASE FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
IMPULSE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY COULD PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH PWATS ONLY PEAKING AT AROUND
1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES. THUS, LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EVEN
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT MOST, SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS
IN WARMER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S, SO LOWS WILL
ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BE
A CONCERN FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL PASS OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
OR GREATER. BEFORE THE LINE MOVES IN, PREVAILING MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AND WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS. AROUND 06Z, THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT BTR. BY 07Z,
THE LINE WILL BE IMPACTING MCB AND HDC. BY 08Z, THE LINE WILL BE
IMPACTING HUM, MSY, NEW, AND ASD. BY 10Z, THE LINE WILL BE
IMPACTING GPT. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE FOR AN HOUR OR LESS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH THE TERMINAL, AND ALL
OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE BACK IN MVFR AND VFR STATUS BY 14Z. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL EXCEED 20 KNOTS. AS
THESE STRONGER WINDS PERSIST, SEAS WILL BUILD TO OVER 7 FEET AND
TURN ROUGH RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALLER CRAFT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CALMER SEAS RETURN AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES
THE GULF.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-
572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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