215
FXUS64 KLIX 150650
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT. MAIN THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS (60+MPH) AND LIGHTNING. AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
TORNADO WATCH #6 HAS BEEN CANCELED SINCE THE LINE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES AND SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THESE
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
(FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL,
PLEASE REFERENCE THE PREVIOUS AFD SUBMITTED AT 1155AM CST 2/14/26)
THE EARLY MORNING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND TO
THE EAST WE WILL BE LEFT WITH GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY MODEST
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CHANGES. WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE FROM A
PACIFIC IN ORIGIN AS WELL AS LACKING THE NORTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE, NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURES CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. GOING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK THE REGION WILL
RESIDE UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH MEANS MOSTLY A TEMPERATURES
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP KEEP THINGS
RATHER BENIGN WITH CALMER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AN H5 RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
WHICH WILL HELP KICK OFF A GRADUAL WARMING TRENDS THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OF THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW, EXPECT FOGGY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER
80S LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. WITHIN THE VERY RICH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THERE COULD BE A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST MODEST POPS TO
ROUND OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONVECTION INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
QUICK MOVING LINE WILL ENTER THE BTR AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE
EASTWARD BEYOND THE MS GULF COAST BY AROUND 12-13Z. WITH THIS LINE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 40KTS+ WILL BE LIKELY AND VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED. AGAIN THIS SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH EVERYONE SEEING VFR BY THE END OF THE CYCLE.
WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING
LATE IN THE PERIOD. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS IN SEAS IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 KNOTS FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH WAVES APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING
7FT AT TIMES OVER THE OPEN GULF. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE LIGHTER
WINDS AND CALMER SEAS RETURN AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DOMINATES THE GULF. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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