283
FXUS64 KLIX 042143
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 340 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD PROVIDE MUCH-
NEEDED RAIN TO LOCALIZED AREAS.
- NIGHTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA AND IS EXPANDED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF AMERICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN US COASTAL STATES. UPSTREAM, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A MORE ESTABLISHED
TROUGH IS TRACKING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
THESE FEATURES ARE REFLECTED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS. THIS PLACES THE LOCAL AREA
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, REMOVED FROM STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER,
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN
GULF HAS ADVECTED DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND THIS MORNING,
WITH PWS INCREASING FROM NEAR 1 INCH TO OVER 1.5". DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE INCREASE HAS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS WEST OF I-55. WITH PEAK HEATING NOW PASSING,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT, AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S. DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODESTLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GULF REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE EARLY MARCH
NORMALS. FORECAST HIGHS APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT SOME
LOCATIONS, NEARING DAILY RECORD VALUES AT A FEW CLIMATE SITES,
THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW RECORD
THRESHOLDS. AT THE SAME TIME, INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY SUPPORT
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN, RAIN
COVERAGE MAY BECOME SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY, WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING PERIODS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL MOISTURE TO
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TERMINALS I-55 AND WESTWARD WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MOST IMPACTED AS STEADY STREAM OF OFF/ON SHOWERS TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LINE. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST WITHIN THIS REGION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE IN THE 22-02Z
TIMEFRAME. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL CARRY ITS OWN ISSUES IN THE
FORM OF AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND LOWERING STRATUS DECK. IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL DOMINATE THAT PERIOD BUT COULD SEE SOME
RESTRICTIONS BELOW IFR AT TIMES UNTIL MID MORNING THURS.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS MAINTAINS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THOUGH A BIT
CHALLENGING TO MORE DECISIVELY POINT TOWARDS ANY ONE PORTION OF THE
MARINE AREAS. THIS FOG MAY TURN DENSE AT TIMES AND IMPACT
NAVIGATIONAL OPERATIONS. OUTSIDE OF THE FOG CONCERN, A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ONSHORE
WINDS RIGHT NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. THOSE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEFFER
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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