182
FXUS64 KLIX 042328
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
528 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD PROVIDE MUCH-
NEEDED RAIN TO LOCALIZED AREAS.
- NIGHTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
PERFORMED A FORECAST UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE/OBS TRENDS. STILL GOT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OUT
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
DYNAMIC/WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE INTO THE
REGION THAT WAS DIURNALLY/THERMODYNAMICALLY ENHANCED, BUT AS THE
SUN SETS WE'LL SEE THIS SUPPORT WANE AND ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH. NEXT FOCUS BECOMES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT. GETTING STRONGER SIGNALS ACROSS COASTAL MS AND OFFSHORE
SE LA FROM RECENT GUIDANCE, BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK LATER
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WARM ONE TOMORROW, DID BUMP HIGHS UP
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO VERIFICATION TRENDS (50TH PERCENTILE) HAVING
MANY AREAS REACH CLOSE AT OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. WE'LL DIVE DEEPER
MORE INTO EVERYTHING HERE LATER THIS EVENING. KLG
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA AND IS EXPANDED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF AMERICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN US COASTAL STATES. UPSTREAM, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A MORE ESTABLISHED
TROUGH IS TRACKING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
THESE FEATURES ARE REFLECTED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS. THIS PLACES THE LOCAL AREA
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, REMOVED FROM STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER,
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN
GULF HAS ADVECTED DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND THIS MORNING,
WITH PWS INCREASING FROM NEAR 1 INCH TO OVER 1.5". DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE INCREASE HAS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS WEST OF I-55. WITH PEAK HEATING NOW PASSING,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT, AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S. DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODESTLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GULF REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE EARLY MARCH
NORMALS. FORECAST HIGHS APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT SOME
LOCATIONS, NEARING DAILY RECORD VALUES AT A FEW CLIMATE SITES,
THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW RECORD
THRESHOLDS. AT THE SAME TIME, INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY SUPPORT
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN, RAIN
COVERAGE MAY BECOME SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY, WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING PERIODS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL MOISTURE TO
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
ONGOING -SHRA MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH REVEALING LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY FG POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING, BUT
FOR NOW GREATEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS
(COASTAL MISSISSIPPI) WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, QUIET TONIGHT.
WE'LL SEE A LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA TOMORROW DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS BETWEEN 18-00Z, BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED.
INTRODUCED GREATEST PROBS TO TERMINALS MENTIONING PROB30'S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS MAINTAINS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. FOG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THOUGH A BIT
CHALLENGING TO MORE DECISIVELY POINT TOWARDS ANY ONE PORTION OF THE
MARINE AREAS. THIS FOG MAY TURN DENSE AT TIMES AND IMPACT
NAVIGATIONAL OPERATIONS. OUTSIDE OF THE FOG CONCERN, A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ONSHORE
WINDS RIGHT NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. THOSE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...ME
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page