689
FXUS64 KLIX 050552
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS FOR
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NEAR OR SURPASS RECORD HIGHS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. KEEPING AN EYE ON SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY IF THIS REMNANT ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT
INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- NIGHTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
STARTING OFF WITH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING, RECENT GOES-16
IR AND CLOUD MICROPHYSICS SHOWS THE REMNANT UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS
CANOPY FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AS LOW STRATUS BUILDS INTO THE REST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DEFINITELY NOT A CLEAR-CUT FORECAST
SCENARIO AS WE'RE SEEING MANY PRO'S/CON'S TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE
IT'LL MAKE FOR A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST. WE DO HAVE AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN A SUBTLE ADVECTION FOG REGIME, COOLER
SHELF WATERS LIKELY WILL PROMOTE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER CLOSER TO COASTAL SE LA. ALREADY SEEING
IN THE FOG PRODUCT FOG/STRATUS BUILDING DOWN OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN, WHERE THE CIRRUS CANOPY HAS DISSIPATED ALLOWING IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SUPPORT FOG MAINTENANCE/DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONING, WENT AHEAD WITH FG.Y FOR COASTAL SE
LA AND MATCHED MF.Y FOR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ACROSS AREAS WITH
BEST FOG PROBABILITIES. AS FOR FURTHER INLAND, AREAS THAT SAW
RAIN TODAY (ALONG/WEST OF I-55) WILL HAVE COOLER GROUNDS ONTOP OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60'S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE HIGH-CONFIDENCE, BUT
DENSE REACHING 1/4SM OR LESS WILL BE IN QUESTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE/OBS IN CASE AN EXPANSION NORTHWARD IS
NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
OTHERWISE, WE'RE ON THE PATH FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE COMING IN RIGHT AT OR JUST BARELY BELOW CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR THE DATE. WON'T BE SURPRISE WE ATLEAST TIE OR BREAK A
FEW AS RECENT HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TOMORROW (MIXED WITH HIGH CIRRUS AND CUMULUS STREETS
WITHIN A MOIST UPPER PBL). THEN, ATTENTION FOCUSES AT THE PATTERN
SIMILARLY WHAT WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BALANCE GAME BETWEEN
HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WE'LL SEE.
WHILE WE'RE NOT EXACTLY IN THE POSITION FOR DYNAMIC/SYNOPTIC-LEVEL
SUPPORT WITHIN A WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT, REMOVED FROM ANY NOTABLE
PVA/MID-LEVEL IMPULSES, HOWEVER WILL NOTE BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NW GULF. GIVEN THAT, WE'LL NEED OTHER PLAYERS
TO SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE AND WE MIGHT HAVE THAT IN THE
FORM OF 1) DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION/BUILDING INSTABILITY 2) ONGOING
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION 3) LOCALIZED FORCING - NOW THIS ONE COULD
BE TRICKY. HRRR 0-1KM MEAN WIND/SFC WIND ILLUSTRATES PROGRESSIVE
SE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT DOES SUPPORT THE WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHSHORE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY GIVEN LAND/WATER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING POTENTIAL. IF THIS OCCURS, THE SE MEAN WIND COULD STALL
THIS BOUNDARY EAST TO WEST AND TILT IT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
BASICALLY FOLLOWING THE RIVER PARISHES. SMALL-SCALE BY ALL MEANS,
BUT COULD SUPPORT A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS TO GET SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. THE COMBINED DEGREE OF FORCING INVOLVED IS IN
QUESTION, BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH, TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND
POSITIVE BUOYANCY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO (-12 TO -13C AT H5, SO COLD AIR IS
SITUATED ALOFT). NOTHING SLAM DUNK BY ALL MEANS, BUT WAS ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE A MINOR UPTICK IN POP COVERAGE FROM 10-15% TO MORESO
20-30%. CAMS THAT PINPOINT THIS POTENTIAL INCLUDE THE SYNOPTIC
HOUR HRRR AND RRFS. AGAIN, A SITUATION THAT WILL FALL INTO PLACE
ONLY IF ALL LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE AT WORK. ANYTHING MISSING,
WE'LL LIKELY ONLY GET A FEW ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS THAT STRUGGLE
TO ATTAIN SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHTS. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
SAME DEAL GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY THE SAME AS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
EXTENT/POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE IN QUESTION.
MEANWHILE GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY IN THE SAME
GENERAL IDEA THAT WE'LL SEE SOME AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS, WITH BEST COVERAGE/FOCUS ACROSS ANY CONFLUENCE BANDING
FROM SURFACE WINDS. KLG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED MAR4 2026
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, DEFINITELY EYEBALLING SOME CHALLENGES.
STARTING WITH WHAT IS GOING ON TO OUR WEST - A LARGE-SCALE WESTERN
US TROUGH BECOMES "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN BUILDING PACNW RIDGING AND
ANCHORED RIDGING OVER THE SE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE, A
PIECE OF ENERGY UPSTREAM OF THE POSITIVE-TILT AXIS SLIDES SOUTH
OFFSHORE COASTAL CALIFORNIA EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE BAJA. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS WHAT WOULD EVENTUALLY BE THE DETACHMENT OF THE
LEAD ENERGY/BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT MEANWHILE, THE LINGERING ENERGY BECOMES LEFT
BEHIND AND CUT OFF MEANDERING OVER BAJA AS THE US TRANSITIONS INTO
A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN. FEW BIG KEY POINTS HERE... WHILE YES,
BROAD-SCALE SYNOPTIC-LEVEL SUPPORT DOES WANE AS THE BEST
ENERGY/LIFT ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US, BUT WE'LL SEE A
WEAKENING FRONT DRIFT OUR WAY AND SLOW WITH TIME BECOMING
PARALLEL TO LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REDUCING IT'S FORWARD MOMENTUM.
LATE SATURDAY, WHAT IS LEFT FROM THE EARLIER DAY'S SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL US WILL SURGE EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX TO
EVENTUAL MS VALLEY REGION LOOSING 1) GREATEST DYNAMIC
LIFT/SUPPORT AS BEST LIFT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND 2)
LOOSING DAYTIME HEATING/SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMICS. IT'S CAUTIONED,
THAT THE EXTENT/SCALE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THIS REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE A COLD POOL,
AT A SCALE THAT COULD SELF-SUSTAIN LIFT AND CONTINUE THIS
ACTIVITY EAST AND EVEN SOUTHEAST NEARING OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LOTS OF "WHAT IF'S" WITH THIS POSSIBLE
SCENARIO AND WILL LIKELY FULLY DEPEND ON THE UPSTREAM DEPTH/EXTENT
OF SEVERE CONVECTION AND IF IT COULD COUNTERACT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LACK OF ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT. LATE-HOUR RRFS RUNS ARE BEGINNING
TO HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
BEYOND THIS GOING INTO SUNDAY TO EVENTUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE
ENTER A SLIGHT BREAK IN SUBTLE NW GULF RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
UPPER- LEVEL LOW STATIONED OVER NW MX, BUT IT WON'T TAKE LONG
UNTIL THIS ENERGY SLIDES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN US, POSITIONING
THE SE US INTO A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MANY
THINGS TO WATCH INCLUDING HOW DEEP THIS UPPER-LOW CAN MAINTAIN,
THE DEPTH/EXTENT OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE THAT TRIES TO PICK IT UP
OVER THE NORTHERN US AND EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE LOW ITSELF
WHICH WILL REVEAL WHICH AREA(S) MAY BE MORE PINPOINTED IN THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MANY THINGS NEED TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT,
SO FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RISK
AROUND MID-WEEK, BUT STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST AS WE NEAR CLOSER.
KLG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING FROM 06-14Z WILL BE AREAS OF FG AND
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST ALL TERMINALS REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORIES
AT TIMES. BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VIS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG
COASTAL SE LA, NORTH INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN OR NEAR/WITHIN
TERMINALS THAT SAW RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-MORNING, BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE
CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN
AREAS. IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED BUT EXPECT REDUCED VIS/LOW CIGS IN
ANY STORM FROM HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT VFR OUTSIDE ANY SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY WITH VFR PREVAILING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AVERAGING GENERALLY 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS 12-15KTS
AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF COASTAL FOG
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EACH MORNING, MAINLY FROM 10PM-10AM. THIS
MORNING, DID INTRODUCE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SE LA THROUGH 10AM. OTHERWISE, DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH DAY CLOSER TO NEAR SHORE
AREAS, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MORE AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH ATLEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KLG
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ066>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
555.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG
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