004
FXUS64 KLIX 051900
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
100 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH NEAR OR SURPASS RECORD HIGHS, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET AND THE MODE OF
SEVERE WEATHER, IF ANY, THAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN OUR
AREA.
- FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHELF WATERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND, LAKE BORGNE, AND NORTHERN
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT WHICH COULD MOVE ONSHORE INTO
ADJACENT COASTAL LAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
ANOMALOUS WARM AIR ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE RETURN FLOW ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT
WITH DAILY RECORDS THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO BRING
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10/12 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TO NEAR
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WARMTH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON, FOCUSED PREDOMINANTLY ALONG AREAS OF FOCUSED CONFLUENCE
WHERE THE RETURN FLOW ROUNDS THE HIGH PRESSURE. TODAY, THAT FOCUS
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LESS CONFLUENCE TO FOCUS LIFT AND VERTICAL GROWTH OF UPDRAFTS. MUCH
OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW THOUGH COVERAGE MAY EXPAND
FARTHER EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MS AS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ERODES.
ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO MORE
STRICTLY ADVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE WARM, UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
AMPLE DAYTIME MIXING AWAY FROM THE APEX OF THE SURFACE HIGH DO NOT
LEND CONFIDENCE TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSIONS THAT WOULD PROMOTE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE COLDER SHELF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE ONSHORE
FLOW CARRIES THE FOG TOWARD. REFS/HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD (50-70%) OF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND, LAKE BORGNE, NORTHERN LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE ADJACENT NORTHSHORE AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
AREAS INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT IS
LOW IN HOW DENSE THIS FOG WILL BE AS IT WILL LIKELY BE INDUCED BY
LOW STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO A DEGREE AND BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE.
FURTHER MONITORING OF THIS WILL BE NEEDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TO DETERMINE IF DENSE FOG PRODUCTS WILL BE NECESSARY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A LARGE-SCALE WESTERN US TROUGH WILL BE "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN
BUILDING RIDGES OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL
PINCH OFF THE BASE OF THE HIGHLY POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH INTO THE
SW CONUS. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS WHAT WOULD EVENTUALLY BE THE
DETACHMENT OF THE LEAD ENERGY/BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE GOING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE LINGERING ENERGY IS LEFT
BEHIND TO MEANDER OVER BAJA AS THE US TRANSITIONS INTO A QUASI-
ZONAL PATTERN. AS THE BEST ENERGY/LIFT ADVANCES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US, WE'LL SEE A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFT OUR WAY AND
SLOW WITH TIME AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
REDUCING IT'S FORWARD MOMENTUM. LATE SATURDAY, WHAT IS LEFT FROM
THE EARLIER DAY'S SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL US WILL
SURGE EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX TO EVENTUAL MS VALLEY REGION. THE
PRIMARY CAVEAT TO SEVERE WEATHER ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA WILL BE
THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE LOSING THE GREATEST DYNAMIC
LIFT/SUPPORT AND LOSING DAYTIME HEATING/SUPPORTIVE
THERMODYNAMICS. IT'S CAUTIONED, THAT THE EXTENT/SCALE OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD
POTENTIALLY CREATE A COLD POOL, AT A SCALE THAT COULD SELF-SUSTAIN
LIFT AND CONTINUE THIS ACTIVITY EAST AND EVEN SOUTHEAST NEARING
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LOTS OF "WHAT IF'S" WITH
THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO AND WILL LIKELY FULLY DEPEND ON THE
UPSTREAM DEPTH/EXTENT OF SEVERE CONVECTION AND IF IT COULD
COUNTERACT THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT. LATE-
HOUR RRFS RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL, SO
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON.
BEYOND THIS GOING INTO SUNDAY TO EVENTUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE
ENTER A SLIGHT BREAK IN SUBTLE NW GULF RIDGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW STATIONED OVER NW MX, BUT IT WON'T TAKE LONG UNTIL THIS
ENERGY SLIDES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN US, POSITIONING THE SE US INTO
A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MANY THINGS TO WATCH
INCLUDING HOW DEEP THIS UPPER-LOW CAN MAINTAIN, THE DEPTH/EXTENT OF
THE KICKER SHORTWAVE THAT TRIES TO PICK IT UP OVER THE NORTHERN US
AND EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE LOW ITSELF WHICH WILL REVEAL WHICH
AREA(S) MAY BE MORE PINPOINTED IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MANY
THINGS NEED TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT, SO FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE
TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RISK AROUND MID-WEEK, BUT STAY
TUNED TO THE FORECAST AS WE NEAR CLOSER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS GRADUALLY LIFTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
STEADY ONSHORE/SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 8-12 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY AND GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR BTR LATER TODAY, BUT PROBS ARE LOW
OF DIRECT IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. BY MIDNIGHT, EXPECT SCT-BKN
STRATUS TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK DOWN TO IFR. LIFR CIG WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT ASD AND GPT WITH MVFR TO IFR MARINE FOG WORSENING VIS/CIG.
DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ASD, GPT, AND MCB, BUT IS LESS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE. FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY AS IT PERTAINS
TO VISIBILITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AVERAGING GENERALLY 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS 12-15KTS
AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF COASTAL FOG
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EACH MORNING, MAINLY FROM 10PM-10AM. OTHERWISE,
DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH
DAY CLOSER TO NEARSHORE AREAS, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MORE AS
WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH ATLEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
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