506
FXUS64 KLIX 061145
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
545 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH NEAR OR SURPASS RECORD HIGHS, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET AND THE MODE OF
SEVERE WEATHER, IF ANY, THAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN OUR
AREA.
- FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHELF WATERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND, LAKE BORGNE, AND NORTHERN
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT WHICH COULD MOVE ONSHORE INTO
ADJACENT COASTAL LAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO ADVECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS A RESULT. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE, BUT SOME LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (30-50MPH) COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND LOWS NEAR 70. ADDITIONALLY, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MS
COASTAL AREAS. MSW
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND LINGER, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY, GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.
GENERALLY, THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, SO WE WILL KEEP
MONITORING. BUT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, BUT IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO AT LEAST EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS (30-60MPH)
TO BE A CONCERN. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING FOR CHANGES AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY OVERALL UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S STILL AS WE HEAD TOWARD MID-MARCH. MSW
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
CURRENT TAFS ARE A MIXED BAG OF MVFR-IFR MOSTLY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF FOG ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS
EAST OF I-55. THE CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT AFTER
SUNRISE AND THAT ALONG WITH THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR BY
MID MORNING. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
BASICALLY ALL THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST ON
THAT, SO LEFT PROB30S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE TOMORROW
NIGHT ARRIVES, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ALONG WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND AVERAGING GENERALLY 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS 12-15KTS
AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF COASTAL
FOG FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EACH MORNING, MAINLY FROM 10PM-10AM. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MS SOUND FOR THE MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH DAY CLOSER TO NEARSHORE AREAS, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING MORE AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH ATLEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-536-
557.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ536-557.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...MSW
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