433
FXUS64 KLIX 070001 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
601 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS
APPEAR TO BE TODAY, SATURDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NEAR OR SURPASS RECORD HIGHS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
- SUMMER-LIKE POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR TODAY WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON
STORMS MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL UP TO 1", LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN NW AREAS. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
- DENSE FOG OF LESS THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE OF VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED
IN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. DENSE FOG
IS NOT LIKELY OVER LAND, BUT PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE WARM SEASON PATTERN HAS COME EARLY AS STRONG, MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH PAIRS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS
AGAIN TODAY THOUGH IT'S UNCLEAR IF WE'LL QUITE MAKE IT TO
TIE/BREAK THEM AT THE CLIMATE SITES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW
STRATUS FROM LINGERING SEA FOG CONDITIONS ARE KEEPING THE MS COAST
COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TODAY BY COMPARISON TO ELSEWHERE WHERE
WE'RE COMFORTABLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS DAYTIME HEATING MAKES THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM POP UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, SEA FOG IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COOLER
SHELF WATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST WHICH WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG
FROM LAYING DOWN AT THE SURFACE, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, CLOSER TO 20-40%. THIS SEA FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
A LARGE RIDGE IS EXPECTED BUILD IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WELL-ESTABLISHED RIDGE CLOGGING UP THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
DEEPENED POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING UP SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AS THE PNW RIDGE BUILDS OVERTOP OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IT
WILL PINCH OFF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IN THE SW CONUS WHILE THE
REST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ESCAPES TO THE NORTHEAST AND ROUNDS THE
EASTERN CONUS RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT, THE MID-UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING HELPING TO DRIVE CONVECTION AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO WANE ON SATURDAY. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR IS ANY WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR "RIPPLE" IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THAT COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH EXTRA LIFT IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY LOCALIZED CONFLUENCE OF SURFACE WINDS TO GENERATE MORE
ORGANIZED, CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NW AREAS ESPECIALLY. WIND
PROFILES WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT POPS UP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
ONLY WEAK VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY, BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THIS WOULD BE MORE AKIN TO A SUMMER POP-UP THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH 0-3KM LAPSE RATES HELPING FUEL RAPID INITIAL
UPDRAFT GROWTH OF SLOWER-MOVING STORMS THAT WILL STRUGGLE SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AND THEN COLLAPSE AND COULD CAUSE DOWNBURSTS. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE, PWATS WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT AROUND
1.4 TO 1.6" BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALSO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
WITH THESE STORMS, MUCH LIKE WE SEE IN SUMMER. DESPITE WEAKER SHEAR
AND HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS, HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OF THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
ONCE THE SUN SETS ON SATURDAY, CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIE OFF,
BUT OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN HAVE TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY QUESTION APPEARS TO BE
HOW DEEP THE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE AS THIS CAN HELP
TO MAINTAIN COLD POOLS AND COMPENSATE FOR THE DEPARTING BETTER UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO LONG-RANGE CAMS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD POOLING ALLOWING THE
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA RATHER THAN STALL OUT
WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND WITH MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. AS A WHOLE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
NEARLY AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY ORIENTATION BEING
BETTER ALIGNED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BULK SHEAR VECTOR OUT OF THE
WSW, BUT INSTEAD THE BOUNDARY IS ALMOST PARALLEL IN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS. AS SUCH, IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW WINDS TOWARD THE BOUNDARY, THE TORNADO THREAT IS NEAR ZERO AS
IT APPEARS WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ON SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT, ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN BRIEFLY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DECAY ALONG THE COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE POSITIONED IN THE DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVLE FLOW
OF THE TRAILING CUT-OFF TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE BEEN TRAPPED IN SW
CONUS AS IT FINALLY ESCAPES TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS
REGARDING TIMING AND SEVERITY OF STORMS REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
CIG REDUCTIONS ARE MOSTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LOW
STRATUS DECK RESIDING OVER MOST TERMINALS. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND
PERHAPS CAUSE FURTHER IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER THIS EVENING FOR
TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF I55. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE LOWER CIGS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY NOON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AVERAGING GENERALLY 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 12-20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF COASTAL FOG FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MISSISSIPPI
SOUND AND CHANDELEUR SOUND AND NEARBY WATERS FOR SATURDAY MORNING
WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL BE 1 NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
PERSIST EACH DAY CLOSER TO NEARSHORE AREAS, WITH A GREATER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TO THE MARINE WATERS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH ATLEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ532-536-557.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ536-557.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...TJS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page