951
FXUS64 KLIX 070552
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS
APPEAR TO BE TODAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST
AREAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NEAR OR SURPASS RECORD HIGHS, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, TONIGHT, AND
SUNDAY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL UP
TO 1", LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
- DENSE FOG OF LESS THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE OF VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED
IN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. DENSE FOG
IS NOT LIKELY OVER LAND, BUT PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW RATHER DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. DEW POINTS OF 70+ OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S IS CAUSING SOME MARINE FOG ACROSS THE MS
GULF COAST, ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS HAS
BEEN MORE OF A LOW STRATUS EVENT. OUTSIDE OF CLOUDINESS AND FOG,
EYES ARE LOOKING NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS IS STILL SHOWING UP WELL
IN THE GLOBALS, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE A BIT QUICKER AND A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH MAY PROVIDE A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS ON SUNDAY...MORE ON THAT IN A
MOMENT. FIRST, GIVEN CLIMO AND WE CONSIDER SEVERE PARAMETERS WITH
ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PARENT H5 TROUGH. THIS ONE IS NO
DIFFERENT, HOWEVER, AT THIS JUNCTURE THE ONLY PARAMETERS THAT
REALLY STANDOUT WOULD BE A BIT HIGHER INSTABILITY (JUST UNDER
2K J/KG OF CAPE). LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A BIT LACKLUSTER, IN
FACT BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY 25KTS IS FORECAST. WHAT HAS PERKED
UP MY ATTENTION A BIT IS THE PWATS JUST BELOW 1.7" WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO THE RAINFALL
COULD BE A BIT OF A PROBLEM. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ABNORMALLY DRY, HOWEVER, A QUICK 1-2" OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN VERY
QUICK RUNOFF LEADING TO URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS HAVING
SOME ISSUES.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, BOTH HIGHER RES MESOSCALE CAMS AND
GLOBALS SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION. AGAIN,
WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND A LOT OF THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR REGION BY THIS POINT, BUT A CONDITIONAL OR MARGINAL
THREAT WILL BE THERE FOR HAIL AND WIND. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALSO
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH VORTICITY TO HELP WITH A FEW ROTATING
UPDRAFTS, SO ALTHOUGH NOT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL, A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BUT RULED OUT, BUT CERTAINLY THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE.
MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE A BIT IN TERMS OF HOW QUICKLY THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT. MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH QUICKER AND AFTER ON AVERAGE 1-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, THEY MOVE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AS THE COLD POOL SURGES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GLOBALS MAY BE JUST A BIT SLOWER AS THE
FRONT STALLS UNDER A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. IF THE
FRONT DOES HANG UP AROUND THE I10/12 CORRIDOR THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR HYDRO ISSUES. THINK SOME TRAINING COULD BE
AN ISSUE IF THE FRONT DOES STALL OVER THE LAND AREAS ESPECIALLY
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AROUND. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER, WITH A BIT OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE WEAK FRONT
DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH AN H5
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH, ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY. THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE RETURN FLOW AS WE REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL WATCH A VERY SUBTLE UPPER HIGH DEVELOP AND
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF HELPING MOVE THE
FRONT A BIT NORTH OUT OF THE REGION. UPSTREAM WE WILL BE WATCHING
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. THE GLOBALS INDICATE THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY, BUT SOME RAIN IS BETTER THAN NONE
AT THIS JUNCTURE WITH THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS
YEAR...ASSUMING NO RESIDUAL HYDRO CONCERNS LINGERING FROM THE
SHORT TERM.
GOING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP TO
VALUES WE MORE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND
OVERALL MORE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DRY
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
CIG REDUCTIONS ARE MOSTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LOW
STRATUS DECK RESIDING OVER MOST TERMINALS. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND
PERHAPS CAUSE FURTHER IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS LATER INTO THE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE LOWER CIGS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY
AROUND 17-19Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AVERAGING GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF COASTAL FOG FOR NEARSHORE WATERS ON
SATURDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND
CHANDELEUR SOUND AND NEARBY WATERS FOR SATURDAY MORNING WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE 1 NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE,
DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH DAY CLOSER TO NEARSHORE AREAS, WITH A GREATER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TO THE MARINE WATERS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH ATLEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ532-536-557.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ536-557.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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