925
FXUS64 KLIX 071813
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1213 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE TODAY,
TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR SURPASS RECORD HIGHS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL UP TO 1",
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
- DENSE FOG OF LESS THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE OF VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE
IN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST LATE TONIGHT.
DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS NEAR
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
FROM WISCONSIN TO NEAR SAN DIEGO, WITH THE MAIN IMPULSES OVER IOWA
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF. LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
WISCONSIN WITH A COLD FRONT TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW SEVERE, WAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WEST
TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH NOON CST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.
THE EARLY MORNING LIX SOUNDING SHOWED AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.36 INCHES. CAPE VALUES
WERE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG, AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. AT
THIS POINT, SHEAR WAS VERY LIMITED.
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND, BUT THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-
ZERO. HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL, BUT
UNLESS IT FALLS IN A VERY SHORT TIME, WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN'T
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELING INDICATES THAT THE OVERNIGHT ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS THAT REINVIGORATE CONVECTION ALONG INTERSTATE 10
TO OUR WEST SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULDN'T BE EXPECTED TO BE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, IT COULD RAISE SOME ISSUES REGARDING RAINFALL
IF WE GET ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF THE OVERNIGHT RAIN.
ANY RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO SUNSET SUNDAY.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. AT FIRST GLANCE, FORECAST LOWS WOULD APPEAR TOO
COOL TONIGHT, BUT WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WILL ASSUME THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN
BEHIND THE CONVECTION. SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT IF CONVECTION IS SLOW TO ARRIVE. AT THIS POINT, WON'T
RULE OUT FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORKWEEK. COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY, BUT TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
AT THAT POINT, AND WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER AIR TO THE AREA, WHICH WILL TAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL, CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ONE MUCH COOLER NIGHT (THURSDAY NIGHT) WHERE MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. BY NEXT SATURDAY, HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO BE PUSHING 80 DEGREES AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA NOTED ON RADAR THAT ARE RATHER
QUICK MOVING AND HAVE DONE MAINLY VCTS/VCSH IN THE NEAR TERM. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TSRA WILL BE IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME, WHERE TEMPO
WILL BE USED FOR A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD. THAT'S LIKELY TO GET REFINED
TO A 2 HOUR WINDOW AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR SPECIFIC TERMINALS
IMPROVES. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
SOME CONCERN FOR VERY LOW CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE
THREAT TIMING SLOWS DOWN ANY FURTHER FROM WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT AN ADDITIONAL THREAT
OF TSRA BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY AND WILL COVER THOSE WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AVERAGING GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF COASTAL FOG FOR NEARSHORE WATERS ON
SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST, BUT CONCERNS
WITH TIMING OF APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT ENOUGH TO FOREGO ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE,
DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH DAY CLOSER TO NEARSHORE AREAS, WITH A GREATER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TO THE MARINE WATERS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH ATLEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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