187
FXUS64 KLIX 081147
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
647 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
FOR MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR SURPASS RECORD HIGHS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM LAST
NIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY COULD EXACERBATE THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN.
- DENSE FOG OF LESS THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE OF VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE
IN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY (AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION)
SITTING ALONG THE I10/12 CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM PLAQUMINE TO BATON
ROUGE TO HAMMOND TO COVINGTON. THIS LINE ALTHOUGH NOT INCREDIBLY
INTENSE FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT
AT PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING. PART OF
THAT IS A VERY MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH THE 08/00Z LIX
SOUNDING SHOWING RECORD BREAKING PWATS FOR THE DATE.
GLOBALS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING PRETTY WELL WITH THIS EVENT AS WEAKER
CONVECTION (AND LOWER INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT NOW) HAS
CAUSED THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL QUICK SURGE
THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO COLD POOLING. SO, WITHOUT ANYWHERE TO GO
THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MID AND UPPER FLOW REGIME,
WHICH AGAIN WITHOUT MUCH OF A PUSH FROM THE MESOSCALE WILL LIMIT
THE FORWARD PROGRESS. AS INSTABILITY (AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT)
BECOME EVEN MORE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE TIDAL LAKES AND THE MS
SOUND, EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE RAINFALL RATES A GOOD BIT AND
OVERALL LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS.
EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ALONG THIS FEATURE,
BUT THIS WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH
LOWERING POPS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE, THE SURFACE FRONT DOES LIFT BACK NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA, BUT LARGELY
THE GLOBALS INDICATE MOST OF THE QPF SIGNAL WITH ANOTHER QUICK H5
IMPULSE WILL RESIDE NORTH OF OUR REGION...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I20 CORRIDOR. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING AS WELL AS THE PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW ALSO CONTINUING
TO DRAW NORTHWARD DEEPER GULF MOISTURE. EYES WILL BE SHIFTING
WEST OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHERE THE NEXT FEATURE (TROUGH) WILL
BE SPREADING QUICKLY EAST OVER TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS PARENT TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A QUICK
MOVER, SO HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, OVERALL PARAMETERS DOWN THIS WAY LOOK RATHER
LACKLUSTER. WIND SHEAR IS LOWER END, HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE
INSTABILITY AROUND FOR AT LEAST MENTION OF THUNDER. THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE ALSO DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHWEST, BUT
IT IS SPRING IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL STILL WATCH THE NUMBERS GOING
INTO MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WITH MOST OF THE LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I10/12 FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S, OTHERWISE
NEAR THE WARMER WATERS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S...AND
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON...OR WHAT
WE TYPICALLY CALL AVERAGE FOR EARLY TO MID MARCH. OTHERWISE, DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CWFA RAIN FREE BEYOND THURSDAY
MORNING. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
IT'S A FAIRLY MIXED BAG OF SOME TERMINALS BEING VFR AND THE REST
ARE MVFR OR LOWER. CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE CAUSING REDUCTIONS
ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY IS A SECONDARY CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR
TERMINALS IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS ALL DAY, OUTSIDE OF AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING
IT WILL BE FAIRLY HIT AND MISS. LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, FOG CAUSING LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL
RETURN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AVERAGING GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF COASTAL FOG FOR NEARSHORE WATERS ON
SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. OTHERWISE, DAILY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY CLOSER
TO NEARSHORE AREAS. ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH ATLEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF
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