718
FXUS64 KLIX 082339 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
639 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS AND MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAILY RECORD HIGHS TO BE BROKEN IN SOME AREAS
TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS CURRENTLY LOW, A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS
THIS THREAT EVOLVES.
- IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55 AND
ALONG/NORTH OF I-10/12. GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE AND THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, THINK THE THREAT OF AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG IS THERE AREA-
WIDE AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SE LA AND S
MS FROM 1AM THROUGH 9AM MONDAY. MAIN ARGUMENT AGAINST WIDESPREAD
FOG IS CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT COOLING, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOT
LIKELY TO RISE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 70S, IT WON'T TAKE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF COOLING TO REACH THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE.
MOVING ON TO RAIN CHANCES... AS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE ISOLATED
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, DENSE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BETTER CHANCES COME AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDES SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO FIRE OFF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-55 CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S AND HIGHS NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES MONDAY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH, GIVEN INFLUX OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY WED AFTERNOON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE
NEAR OR EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, AND ENHANCED LIFT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, EXPECT TO SEE A SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A LITTLE TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHETHER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS CERTAINLY LOOK
TO BE IN PLACE, AND IF THE TREND IN THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES EVEN JUST A BIT MORE FAVORABLE, IT WOULD
SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A 15% SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA ROUGHLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE
TO TYLERTOWN, AND THIS SEEMS TO BE A GOOD STARTING POINT AS THE
SPECIFICS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. BUT EVEN WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR
WARMER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TAKING SHAPE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS SEEING VFR FROM THEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO EASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...DM
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