261
FXUS64 KLIX 090442
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS AND MARINERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAILY RECORD HIGHS TO BE BROKEN IN SOME AREAS
TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS CURRENTLY LOW, A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS
THIS THREAT EVOLVES.
- IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY TODAY WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WITH
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE OLD BOUNDARY AND RECENT RAINFALL,
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG DURING THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT AND A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE LOOK TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND. OTHERWISE, THE STORY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO LAST WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S OR LOWER
80S) THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A WEAK H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. TUESDAY, THE RIDGE NUDGES NORTHWARD SETTING UP A WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. AS THE SURFACE FRONT
MOVES A BIT FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, THERE IS ANOTHER SIGNAL FOR FOG TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT A BIT WEAKER THAN MONDAY AM AT THIS JUNCTURE. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN GOING INTO THE LONG TERM IS A MORE
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
SPREADING EAST OVER THE GULF. UPSTREAM, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. GLOBALS SHOW THIS FEATURE BEING MORE ON THE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE, SO WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS
ROUND. HOWEVER, GLOBALS DO TRY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH A BIT MORE WIND SHEAR (LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH) WITH THIS FEATURE, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS CERTAINLY NOT ZERO. THERE ARE STILL A FEW QUESTIONS REGARDING
TIMING AND INSTABILITY, WHICH WE'LL HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS TO FOCUS
ON, HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QLCS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG CONVECTION, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO WITH SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING. MESOVORT POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE THERE WITH ANY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SURGING BOWS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I10/12.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG CAA TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CWFA. WITH A BIT MORE NORTHERN INFLUENCE IN
TERMS OF AIRMASS WHEN COMPARED TO THIS PAST FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO MORE AVERAGE RANGES GOING INTO LATE WEEK WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ON THE NORTHSHORE DROPPING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COOL DOWN IS BRIEF AS ANOTHER WARMING TREND
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DEVELOPS WITH A SUBTLE H5 RIDGE
FILLING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
DRY LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND AHEAD. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TAKING SHAPE
IN JUST A FEW HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS SEEING VFR FROM THEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, STRENGTHENING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO EASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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