589
FXUS64 KLIX 100022
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
722 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 657 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MS BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG APPEARS LOWER.
- A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME AND THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THIS THREAT
EVOLVES.
- IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO WARMER THAN NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS ST. HELENA PARISH HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER
THE LAST FEW MINUTES. HOPEFULLY WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING,
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN. 00Z LIX SOUNDING STILL
SHOWS 2000+ CAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ALTHOUGH SHEAR
REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR. NO PLANS FOR ANY WATCHES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
FOG STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP LAST NIGHT AND IT APPEARS THAT WAS DUE
TO WINDS IN THE FIRST 2-3K FT AS WE SAW STRATUS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE SETUP
JUST DOESN'T SEEM VERY FAVORABLE. WINDS IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND
FEET WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT RANGE AND THAT
SHOULD PROMOTE MORE STRATUS BUT THE OTHER ISSUE IS THERE IS
ALREADY A LOT OF CLOUD COVER OUT THERE AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WE LIKELY JUST
WON'T EVEN COOL OFF ENOUGH. EVEN WITH ALL THE RAIN WE HAD
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOISTURE HAS MIXED NOW OVER THE
LAST DAY PLUS AND ISN'T TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ANYMORE.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM COULD REALLY BE OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. A WEAK MID LVL IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ALREADY SPARKING OFF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD TRY TO SLIDE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE ENVIRONMENT GETS MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR CWA. WITH THAT NOT ANTICIPATING
A LOT OF IMPACTS BUT WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR BATON ROUGE TO TYLERTOWN ONE OR TWO OF THOSE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END MID
LATE EVENING AND WE WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS THE MAIN FOCUS. A DEEP CLOSED LOW
RIGHT ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE OUR PROTAGONIST
BRINGING THE NEXT MAIN SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL IT BRING.
FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT THIS ISN'T THE TYPICAL SETUP. FIRST THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE, MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH, WILL ACTUALLY
BE MOVING MORE EAST ACROSS TX AND RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A L/W TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. AT THE SFC A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
MID/UPPER MS RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE LOW LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH IT PULLING THAT FAR AWAY TO THE NORTH
THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER TX
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK EAST FINALLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE STRONGER SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS
TYPICALLY SEE THE H5 DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS TX AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY NOT EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST. ALSO THE
SFC LOW IS NOT NECESSARILY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN TYPICAL FASHION
DURING OUR SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS. IN ADDITION THIS WILL BE A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC LOW.
DYNAMICALLY THOUGH WE HAVE A LOT TO WORK WITH. FIRST OFF WE DO HAVE
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE FILLING AND OPENING UP MID LVL HGHTS WILL STILL
DROP AT LEAST 6-8DM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE MID LVL JET WILL ROUND THE DISTURBANCE AND MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE
BIT OF AN ISSUE AS THE GOOD MID LVL PUNCH DOESN'T ARRIVE TILL 6Z AND
THAT COULD BE A LITTLE LATE. ALOFT WE WILL SEE THE SUBTROPICAL JET
RUN FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WE DO
LOOK TO MOVE UNDER THE LFQ OF THE JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE
LL JET THOUGH IS A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING. IT WILL BE IN PLACE FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO CENTRAL AL WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE WILL
POSSIBLY SEE THE NOSE AND CORE OF THE LL JET MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BUT THE LL JET WILL BE WEAKENING.
AS FOR THE KINEMATICS THIS IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE LL
JET JUST MENTIONED WILL ACTUALLY BE WEAKENING AND COULD BE
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. IT WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN
GULF, 35 TO 45KT, WITH WINDS ALMOST OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT AS WE
MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THOSE WINDS WEAKEN AND COULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY, 25 TO 30KTS, AND OUT OF THE SW. THE MID LVL WINDS
ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH WINDS AROUND 50-60KT BUT IT IS MORE
TIMING THAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THESE WINDS. AS FOR THE
JET, YES WE DO MOVE UNDER THE LFQ EVENTUALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
BUT THE JET WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING WITH THE CORE RELAXING FROM
NEAR 90KT TO AROUND 75KT. THE STRONGER MID LVL WINDS IS HELPING
TO PROVIDE A 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUE AROUND 40-45KT WHICH IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO GET ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT WITH THE WEAKENING
LL WINDS THE 0-1/0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE RATHER LOW, NEAR 100
AND 150 S2/M2. THOSE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT NOT BELOW 100 AND
GIVEN THE WEAK SFC LOW THESE VALUES COULD BE HIGHER.
AS FOR THE THERMODYNAMICS THIS IS NOT OVERWHELMING EITHER. MLCAPE
VALUES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 500 J/KG OR POSSIBLY LESS ESPECIALLY
THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT WEAK SFC LOW TRAVELS. IF IT IS FARTHER
NORTH THEN WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. THAT SAID WE
WILL HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT WITH A WEAK SFC
LOW AND A MID LVL DISTURBANCE FILLING IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FIELD IS
ALSO RATHER TAME WITH LIKELY A SKINNY CAPE.
ALL OF THIS SUGGEST THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOWER END AND
WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THOSE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
AND PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A FEW REMAINING STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND ESPECIALLY AS WE
MOVE TOWARDS 6Z AND AFTER WHEN INSTABILITY IS THE LOWEST. /CAB/
AFTER EVERYTHING MOVES THROUGH WE WILL MOVE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /CAB/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
IFR CEILINGS AT KGPT AND TSRA TO THE NORTHWEST OF KHDC AT FORECAST
ISSUANCE WERE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING, EXPECTATION IS THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AT KGPT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER, WE DO EXPECT THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE'S POTENTIAL
FOR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT KGPT TOWARD SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
AT MID-MORNING, WITH MOST IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR. DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST AND A FRONT DROPPING
DOWN THE PLAINS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DRIVING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THESE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS QUICKLY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SCY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF
GALE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING VERY
STRONG MARINE WINDS AND EVEN A FEW WATERSPOUTS. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...CAB
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