919
FXUS64 KLIX 100550
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS BUT OVERALL THE
THREAT OF DENSE FOG APPEARS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED.
- A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE, AND THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THIS THREAT EVOLVES.
- IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER
SHOT OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SHORTWAVE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUED TO SHIFT EASTWARD, AND
EARLIER ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. TO THE WEST, AN
UPPER LOW WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
ONTARIO TO NEAR KANSAS CITY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. LATE EVENING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
CLOSER TO SUNRISE, PRIMARILY IN COASTAL AREAS. NOT SEEING ANY
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN ADVISORY, EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS.
SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A WAVE THAT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
AT SUNSET WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST FOR
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.3 INCHES, WHICH IS
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE 80TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. BY SUNSET
WEDNESDAY, THOSE VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES, WHICH IS AROUND THE
90TH PERCENTILE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AROUND TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL BE RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BRIEFLY
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE BUT SHORT OF THE DAILY MAX. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW INSTABILITY, WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
IN SOME AREAS. LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6.5C/KM, WHILE SHEAR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH UPPER
SUPPORT EXPECTED TO BE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE, THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
EXPECTED, RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS.
BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR A BRIEF STAY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
THURSDAY COULD BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR. IF WE DO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY,
WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS
DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S DURING THE DAY. IN MOST SPRING POST
FRONTAL SCENARIOS, GUIDANCE DOESN'T GO LOW ENOUGH ON DEW POINTS. ADD
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS, AND IT'S GOING TO BE
A CONCERN. FORTUNATELY, FUELS SHOULD BE WET, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY PRETTY QUICKLY.
HOWEVER, FRIDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE PRETTY CHILLY IN MOST AREAS,
AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK OR SO. MUCH OF THE AREA IS LIKELY
TO SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S, AND WON'T RULE OUT UPPER 30S IN SOME
WELL PROTECTED AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD GET BACK INTO
THE 70S, AND PROBABLY PRETTY CLOSE TO 80 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL OFF IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT'S ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED
IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES IF CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
IFR CEILINGS AT KGPT AND KASD AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, AND THOSE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY 09Z OR 10Z.
EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPORARY PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS FROM AROUND
10Z THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OR ALL FORECAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN TO MVFR CEILINGS DURING
THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST AND A FRONT DROPPING
DOWN THE PLAINS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES DRIVING THE
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THESE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A WEAK LOW DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF
GALE CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
ALSO BRING VERY STRONG MARINE WINDS AND EVEN A FEW WATERSPOUTS.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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