830
FXUS64 KLIX 212343
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
643 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- THREAT OF FOG INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
RIDGING CENTERED NEAR PHOENIX. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THERE WERE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS, AROUND 2500 FEET, JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA THAT IS BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S AT NOON CDT, AND IT'S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS WILL
GET INTO THE 80S TODAY.
LOCALLY, ONCE THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA CROSSES THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THE UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERNS AREN'T GOING
TO CHANGE VERY MUCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO OUR EAST, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING BEING ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, WITH SIMILAR READINGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, THAT MAY
LEAVE US A BIT MORE PRONE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. CERTAINLY NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY THIS MORNING, BUT SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE, AND WILL HAVE
PATCHY FOG MENTIONED FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE NEARBY
COOLER WATERS SHOULD TOP OFF THE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY,
BRIEFLY SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY BARELY BE NOTICEABLE, AS ABOUT THE ONLY
RESULT MIGHT BE KNOCKING DOWN THE DEW POINTS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WITH THAT SHORTWAVE IS NOT ZERO, BUT IT'S PRETTY
CLOSE TO IT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED IN THE LONGER RANGE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, AS THE MOST RECENT GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ALL WEEKEND. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A BREAK IN CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY, SO WE'LL HAVE TO
MONITOR THAT TREND. IT WOULDN'T LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, BUT THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION WOULD BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG THE LINES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER. THAT WOULD ACTUALLY JUST TAKE US BACK TO WHERE WE ARE
SUPPOSED TO BE IN LATE MARCH. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE INDICATIONS
OF THAT IN THE NBM PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS AS THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE 50TH PERCENTILE NBM FOR NEXT
SATURDAY.
UNTIL THEN, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE'S GOING TO BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S, BUT
COOLER NEAR THE COAST. LOWS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE RIGHT
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE
INVERSION FORMS. THIS INVERSION FORMATION IS SUPPORTED BY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO DIP TO THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE, SO DENSE
FOG WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER, AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL FORM AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. BTR, MCB, HDC, AND HUM HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING SOME MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z SUNDAY. MCB AND HDC HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS OF AROUND 500 FEET TO FORM, AND THESE ARE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS THREAT, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
KEEP ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE
WE'LL SEE INCREASES IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE EVENINGS OVER SOME
OF THE PROTECTED WATERS, WE DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES OR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
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