853
FXUS64 KLIX 221431
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
931 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 928 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
- THREAT OF FOG INCREASES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM OTHER THAN A FEW FOGGY
MORNINGS. DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE A THEIR HIGHEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY THE WINNER OUT
OF THE TWO AS A SLOWING AND STALLING FRONT NEARS THE AREA. WE WILL
HAVE TO LOOK AT THESE INDIVIDUALLY AS THERE COULD BE VARIABLES
THAT DOES NOT ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM SUCH AS CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY, A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TEXAS WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THERE IS EVEN A POTENTIAL TO HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY IF TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY
BE TIED OR ECLIPSED OVER THIS PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE, A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE OF AROUND 25 DEGREES IS ANTICIPATED.
THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S EACH NIGHT. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE EACH AFTERNOON
ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID 50S.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY KEPT THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD CONTINUE
TO THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
WINDOW. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A MUCH STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM SHOWS VERY SLIGHT
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND, ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 5 DEGREES, INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, BUT THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS
LARGER AT CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES.
THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT IS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE, SO IT
IS DEFINITELY AN EXTREME OUTLIER FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
FORECAST WILL STICK WITH THIS OUTLIER TEMPERATURE FOR NOW, BUT AN
INCREASE BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY OCCUR AS WE MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
WHERE THEY ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY. HOWEVER, EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER AS WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AIDES IN
CLOUD DECK 'LIFTING'. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AND LOWER STRAT DECK IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
KEEP A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST BUT
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY. BY WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AND LOW END SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF ONCE AGAIN BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE
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