953
FXUS64 KLIX 222348
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
648 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SELA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- NO RAIN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NM AND NORTHERN MEXICO BUT SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN US. SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE AND HAS ONE DOES SO TONIGHT, THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WHAT THAT DOES IS
ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO MOVE IN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, RIGHT NEAR THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
LOCALLY WILL DROP AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS SETUP WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER INVERSION WITH LLVL SATURATION
IN BATON ROUGE METRO VS WEAKER ONE EAST OF I-55. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES AT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THERE AND THUS KEPT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY GENERALLY LIMITED TO BATON ROUGE METRO TO HOUMA, NOT QUITE
TO NEW ORLEANS OR THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA, A BACKDOOR FRONT DOES APPROACH THE REGION. HOWEVER, THAT
AIRMASS WON'T MAKE IT THROUGH AND TEMPS BARELY DROP FROM TEMPORARY
EROSION OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THAT UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST, CLOSER TO THE
CWA AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST TO THE ATLANTIC AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
EAST. THAT'LL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE AND LOWS/HIGHS WARM TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION, STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT
HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE CARDS
FOR SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS AS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TO ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT MCB, BTR, HDC, AND HUM WHERE IFR
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES AND CEILINGS OF 300 TO 800 FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES
ARE GREATEST AT BTR, SO A PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF A MILE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z. AT ASD, SOME LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 12Z, BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEFORE AND AFTER THE WINDOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO
OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS, VFR CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL. AT GPT, NEW,
AND MSY, BOUNADARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERSION, SO VFR WILL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT THESE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
KEEP A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
AND MAY EVEN GET INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS TUE NIGHT. WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE FRONT PASSES.
BY WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND LOW END SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF ONCE
AGAIN BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ034>036-
046>048-056>060-065-083>086.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...ME
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