601
FXUS64 KLIX 231103
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
603 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING POSSIBLE AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SELA BUT THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
- NO RAIN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS OF NOW BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH
FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
COASTAL MS AND RIGHT ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUIET, WARM, AND UNEVENTFUL FOR
THE MOST PART. IT WAS RATHER WARM YESTERDAY, WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
BUT NO ONE BROKE ANY RECORD HIGHS HOWEVER, THAT MAY NOT BE THE
CASE COME LATER THIS WEEK.
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WHILE THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY FLATTENED OUT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO INTO TX AND NUDGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BROAD WNW FLOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC THERE
IS A FRONT LOCATED STRETCHING WSW FROM THE DELMARVA REGION THOUGH
THE TN VALLEY, AR, AND INTO WESTERN TX. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
GULF AND EAST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WHILE ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY.
AS FOR THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS OF
RIGHT NOW WE STILL HAVE IT IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN PARISHES THROUGH 14Z HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IS
LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. VWP FROM HDC AND LCH BOTH INDICATING
25 TO 30 KT IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS
STRATUS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND NOT NECESSARILY FOG.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE VIEWS EVEN AS SOME FOG TRIES TO
DEVELOP IT IS QUICKLY LIFTING AND SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SOME AREAS BETWEEN MSY AND BTR ALREADY SHOWING BKN AROUND 2500-3K
FT. OVER IN SOUTHWESTERN LA THE LOWER STRATUS IS DEVELOPING MORE
QUICKLY AND SPREADING WITH THOSE CLOUD BASES MUCH LOWER TO THE
GROUND AROUND 300-1K FT. THAT SAID IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO RELAX SOME
IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE (THE SO CALLED SUNRISE SURPRISE FOG).
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP WHAT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WE HAVE WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AND IT WOULDN'T
BE A SURPRISE IF WE WERE JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS
WE COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT COMPRESSIONAL HEATING DUE TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. IT
WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE MORNING LOWS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THAT
IS IT.
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS DRY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE
MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
LIKELY MULTIPLE SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 84 HOURS AND IT APPEARS
MODELS ARE INDICATING ONE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
JUST AS WE BEGIN TO SEE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURN AND BEFORE WE SEE
THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN, WHICH
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT BEST, WILL BE EAST OF I-55. EVEN IF THERE
ISN'T ANY RAIN THIS HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF MESSING WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THAT AREA AS WE COULD HAVE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD SETTING HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM TEXAS DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE HIGHLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS VERY DRY, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE OF AROUND 25 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS THIS EVENING. THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG H5 RIDGE AXIS OF 586 DECAMETERS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH A STRONGER TROUGH DESCENDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS TO AROUND 582 DECAMETERS. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM
SHOWS MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND, ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES, BUT THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE SPREAD HAS GROWN
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEMBERS. THERE IS NOW A 15 DEGREE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THUS, THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE ONE DEFINITE THING IS
THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LITTLE TO NO DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM OUTPUT IS CLOSER TO
THE 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE, SO IT REMAINS ON THE LOWER END OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
STICK WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND FOR NOW, BUT
AN INCREASE BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY OCCUR AS WE MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. /PG/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
MAIN CONCERN IS THIS MORNING AND FOR ONLY THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS.
STRATUS AND FOG ARE GOING TO IMPACT SOME TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THE
TERMINALS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. FOG IS A VERY TRICKY AND
THE POTENTIAL HAS LOOKED RATHER LIMITED MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH VWP
FROM HDC HOLDING ONTO 25 KT OR HIGHER IN THE FIRST AND SECOND
GATES BUT OVER THE LAST HOUR IT HAS RELAXED TO 20 KT AND IF IT
RELAXES MUCH MORE AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYERS WINDS DECOUPLE
COMPLETELY WE COULD SEE FOG QUICKLY DEVELOP RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME TERMINALS ARE ALREADY SHOWING VSBYS DOWN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM BUT
LOOKING AT ALL AVAILABLE CAMERAS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG SUGGESTING THE FOG COULD BE VERY SHALLOW. STRATUS HASN'T QUITE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED AS WELL BUT IT IS TRYING TO EXPAND
SOUTHEAST. THOSE CIGS COULD BE AS LOW AS 300 BUT OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHWEST MOST TERMINALS IF BEING IMPACTED BY LOW CLOUDS ARE
AROUND 1800-1300. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
KEEP A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
IT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY JUST DIP DOWN INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LIKELY LESS
THAN A DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AND SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>036-
046>048-056>060-065-083>086.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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