747
FXUS64 KLIX 231753
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1253 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE
ATCHAFALAYA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
- NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD AND BECOME PARALLEL TO THE
MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN LATER TONIGHT STALLING THE FRONT OVER
THE FORECAST REGION GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE FRONT EXPECT SOME MOISTURE POOLING AGAIN TONIGHT, SO FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE AS IT
DEPENDS EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP, BUT AS OF NOW
THE BEST PROBS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY OVER THE RIVER PARISHES AND
NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. OTHERWISE, THE SHORT TERM CAN BE
CHARACTERIZED AS DRY AND WARM AS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO TEXAS THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEAK. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES,
WHICH SHOULD COME AS NO SHOCK A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE THE RESIDUAL FRONT TRAPPED UNDER THE H5
NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS AND PERHAPS OVER
THE MS GULF COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHOWN IN THE GFS AND ECM, BUT
THE OVERALL QPF SIGNAL IS INCREDIBLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. ONLY
SILENT 10S FOR NOW. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION
LATER WEEK AND INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEN
GLOBALS ARE SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWFA EARLY SATURDAY. GLOBALS AGREE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH AND ALSO
KEEP THE FEATURE DRY WITH MINIMAL POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE DAILY TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION POST
FRONTAL WILL BE THE MAIN STORY (OUTSIDE OF MAYBE SOME MARINE
ISSUES). TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A GOOD 8-10
DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
OUTSIDE OF A TEMPO AT BTR FOR LOW CIGS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION WINDS TO
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IF NOT DONE SO ALREADY, SOON.
WINDS ON TUESDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS
LOWER, BUT BTR AND HUM COULD SEE PATCHY FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT LOWER AT THIS TIME TO MENTION VIS ISSUES. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY BEFORE IT
STALLS NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY JUST
DIP DOWN INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO WEAK NORTHWEST
WINDS BRIEFLY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
OR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY MID TO LATE WEEK. IN RESPONSE A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL AS SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND A FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY TO SCA THRESHOLDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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