666
FXUS64 KLIX 251111
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
611 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MAINLY PORTIONS OF THE RIVER AND BAYOU
PARISHES TILL 9 AM. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
- OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIVER AND BAYOU
PARISHES. NOT ALL OF THE WARMED AREA WILL SEE DENSE FOG BUT THERE
ARE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG EVIDENT IN A FEW OBSERVATIONS AND TRAFFIC
CAMERAS. IF DRIVING ALLOW FOR SOME EXTRA TIME AND REALIZE THAT YOU
COULD QUICKLY GO FROM ALMOST UNLIMITED VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A
QUARTER. /CAB/
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
QUIET, WARM, AND DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE. IF YOU HAVE BEEN
FOLLOWING ALONG THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH TO BRING UP IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS IT IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND MILD FOG PROBLEM. OUR FRONT STALLED YESTERDAY AND BY
6Z WAS ALREADY LIFTING TO THE NORTH AT THE TAIL END. THIS HAS THE
FRONT DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN 3RD OF
THE CWA. ALOFT THE CONUS IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY TWO BROAD
FEATURES; L/W TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BUILDING
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE US/MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS.
THERE IS STILL A BROAD WEAK MID LVL LOW LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS OUR RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL BUILD AND
NUDGE EAST. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH 585 AND 586DM
HGHTS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW
TO BUILD SO MID LVL HGHTS WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE AROUND
581/582. WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HGHTS, THE FRONT SLOWLY
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH PROVIDING SOME WEAK SUPPORT AND AN
AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING, STILL ANTICIPATE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER.
THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL REALLY BE MORE ABOUT THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND LL TEMPS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO WE ARE
LIKELY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT COASTAL MS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE UPPER 70S. AS FOR RECORDS, CURRENTLY THE FORECAST
IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWING ANY SITE BREAKING A RECORD. LOOKING AT A
FEW THINGS IS THE LL TEMPS ARE WHAT IS BEING INDICATED THE 19-21
C READINGS SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S AND MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
RECORDS OF 87 TO 90 FOR BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER THING IF WE ARE GOING
TO HAVE A CHANCE OF BREAKING SOME RECORDS WE WILL NEED A LOT TO
COME TOGETHER AND ANOTHER SMALL ISSUE IS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING
WITH MILD TO MODERATE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE
DETAIL THAT COULD SWING TOWARDS A WARMER FORECAST IS THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT FRONT, WHICH AS OF RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY. TYPICALLY THERE IS SOME MINOR COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING JUST OUT AHEAD OF FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS DURING THE DAY. SO IF IT ONLY 3-6 HOURS
FASTER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE FORECAST COULD BE A TOUCH
TO LOW AND HIGHS COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH 90 IN SELECT AREAS.
AS FOR FOG, NOT SEEING A GREAT DEAL OF POTENTIAL THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE FRONT IS STILL STALLED OVER OUR AREA BUT VERY ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR TONIGHT,
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE HAVE HAD ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN IN OVER A WEEK AND MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW THE MID 60S THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FEELS
ON THE LOW SIDE. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY ERODE A
STRONG H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH FROM
TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE, BUT THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT MOST, SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY, THE STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RISING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S. A
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUPPRESSED, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BENEATH THE INVERSION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A VERY LOW 15 TO 20 PERCENT POP IS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THAT COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW TOPPED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY RAIN WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR ON THESE DAYS. /PG/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR STATUS HOWEVER WE ARE FINALLY SEEING FOG
AND VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOP. AT 12Z ONLY ASD AND HUM WERE
TECHNICALLY SEEING IMPACTS WITH ASD SHOWING CIGS AT 200 FT AND
HUM DEALING WITH BOTH FOG AND LOW CIGS. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE
TERMINALS HAVE SOME IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE
EVERYONE QUICKLY MOVES BACK TO VFR STATUS. TONIGHT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS AGAIN AND TO IMPACT MOST IF NOT ALL
TERMINALS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THEY ARE
CURRENTLY. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
OUR FRONT STALLED YESTERDAY WAS ALREADY LAYING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
BISECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO RETURN FLOW SETTING BACK UP
OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEEDING HEADLINES FOR THE ALL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. /CAB/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FORGOT TO ADD THIS EARLIER BUT WANTED TO GIVE A HEADS UP ON THE
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS SATURDAY. AS THAT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKE
FRIDAY NIGHT, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN AND STRONG
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. TYPICALLY MODELS AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING/DRYING BEHIND THESE EARLY SPRING FRONTS. IF THIS IS THE
CASE AGAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED DROUGHT WE
ARE EXPERIENCING COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE RED FLAG WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWMS. THE
ONE POSITIVE ASPECT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AFTER MIDDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO RAMP
DOWN FASTER. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ046-
056>060-065>067-085-086.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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