778
FXUS64 KLIX 252151
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
451 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 447 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
- OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 447 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY NEAR THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND THE RIVER PARISHES, WHERE FOG HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE FEW NIGHTS AND GUIDANCE HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED
EXPANDED LATER IN THE EVENING/NIGHT. RW
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
ALOFT THE CONUS IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY TWO BROAD
FEATURES; L/W TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BUILDING
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE US/MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS.
THERE IS STILL A BROAD WEAK MID LVL LOW LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS THE RIDGE WEST OF THE
AREA WILL BUILD AND NUDGE EAST. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH 585ISH DM
HGHTS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY THE RIDGE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD SO MID LVL HGHTS WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE
AROUND 581/582. WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HGHTS, THE FRONT SLOWLY
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH PROVIDING SOME WEAK SUPPORT AND AN
AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING, FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE RIVER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL REALLY BE MORE ABOUT THE HOT TEMPERATURES.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND LL TEMPS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO WE
ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT COASTAL MS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE UPPER 70S. AS FOR RECORDS, CURRENTLY THE FORECAST
IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWING ANY SITE BREAKING A RECORD. LOOKING AT A
FEW THINGS IS THE LL TEMPS ARE WHAT IS BEING INDICATED THE 19-21
C READINGS SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S AND MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
RECORDS OF 87 TO 90 FOR BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER THING IF WE ARE GOING
TO HAVE A CHANCE OF BREAKING SOME RECORDS WE WILL NEED A LOT TO
COME TOGETHER AND ANOTHER SMALL ISSUE IS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING
WITH MILD TO MODERATE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE
DETAIL THAT COULD SWING TOWARDS A WARMER FORECAST IS THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT FRONT, WHICH AS OF RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY. TYPICALLY THERE IS SOME MINOR COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING JUST OUT AHEAD OF FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS DURING THE DAY. SO IF IT ONLY 3-6 HOURS
FASTER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE FORECAST COULD BE A TOUCH
TOO LOW AND HIGHS COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH 90 IN SELECT AREAS.
AS FOR FOG, TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING HOWEVER
GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN IN OVER A
WEEK AND MORNING LOWS STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW THE MID 60S THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG FEELS ON THE LOW SIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY ERODE A
STRONG H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH FROM
TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE,
AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY, THE STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RISING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S. A
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUPPRESSED, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BENEATH THE INVERSION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A VERY LOW 15 TO 20 PERCENT POP IS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THAT COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW TOPPED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VFR. THIS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE,
LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ARE LIKELY TO DRIVE CONDTIONS TO IFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO RETURN FLOW SETTING BACK UP OVER
THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEEDING HEADLINES FOR THE ALL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE
COLD/DRY FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND HIGHER WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WON'T LAST
LONG BUT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST CASE,
THE CRITICALLY DRY AIR (RH<40%) RUNS FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TO MID-
EVENING AND THE WINDS (>15 MPH) FROM EARLY MORNING TO LATE
AFTERNOON GIVING AN OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. WORST CASE, THOUGH, WE SHOULD LOOK AT EARLY
MORNING TO MID-EVENING FOR THE TIMING.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR LAZ034-035-046>048-056>060-065>067-085-086.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...SCHLOTZ
MARINE...SCHLOTZ
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