787
FXUS64 KLIX 260746
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
246 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THERE ARE SOME IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT OVERALL NOT A LOT OF
ISSUES. OBVIOUSLY FOG IS THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST PROBLEM. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORT ADVISORY REMAINS OUT OF THE RIVER AND BAYOU
PARISHES HOWEVER, FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING SO FAR.
WE ARE WARMER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY SO THAT IS A NEGATIVE
FOR FOG AND LOOKING AT THE KHDC VWP WINDS ALL MOST OF THE NIGHT
HAVE BEEN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT THE FIRST GATE. THAT IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR FOG AND WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY LOW STRATUS AND LOOKING
AT GOES RIGHT NOW THAT HAS ABSOLUTELY BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT THE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
RELAXING SOME SO THOSE LOW CLOUDS COULD BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN
TOWARDS THE SURFACE LEADING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FOG CONCERN.
FOG DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING IN
THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA BUT ALSO PORTIONS OF COASTAL MS.
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE GIVEN
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OFF TO THE ENE LEADING TO RETURN FLOW AT SFC AND LL. THE RIDGE IN
THE MID LVLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY AND TOMORROW
LEADING TO INCREASING HGHTS, WARMER LL TEMPS, AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE. WITH THAT WE WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 80S WITH A
FEW UPPER 80S TOSSED IN THERE.
THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN COMES INTO PLAY SATURDAY. A S/W MOVING
THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY WILL RIDE OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN USHER
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD AIR COMING DOWN BUT IT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT. THE OTHER NEGATIVE ASPECT IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE
RAIN FREE WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO HELP EXACERBATE THE DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE LAST THING, WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY
DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAINING MODERATE TO STRONG INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY RELAXING. ALL OF THIS IS
LEADING TO SOME CONCERN OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THERE'S REALLY NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED UPPER PATTERN IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND THE EARLIER DISCUSSION PRETTY MUCH REMAINS
VALID.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY ERODE A
STRONG H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH FROM
TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE, BUT THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALREADY BE OFFSHORE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO ALREADY BE RETURNING
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT THEY WON'T
AMOUNT TO MUCH AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES, LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH, IF IT RAINS AT ALL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO
AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. AS NOTED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY, THE STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RISING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S. A
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUPPRESSED, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BENEATH THE INVERSION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY ONWARD. NOT MUCH MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT
COVERAGE AT MOST, AND ANYTHING MORE THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANY DAY WOULD BE A SURPRISE RIGHT NOW. A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK. /RW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER WHAT
THE GREATEST IMPACT IS, IS KIND OF A QUESTION. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIVER AND BAYOU
PARISHES WHICH WOULD MAINLY IMPACT BTR, HUM, AND POSSIBLY MSY.
ELSEWHERE CIGS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT. HDC VWP HAS BEEN
SHOWING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AT THE FIRST GATE MOST OF THE NIGHT
WHICH HIGHLY SUGGEST LOW STRATUS MORE THAN FOG BUT RECENTLY THE
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SLACK OFF TO AROUND 15 KT. SATELLITE IS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING BUT IF THOSE WINDS
CONTINUE TO RELAX THAT CIG DECK WHICH IS AROUND 1K-1600 FT COULD
BEGIN TO LOWER TOWARDS THE DECK. CURRENTLY THERE IS A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT FULLY ANTICIPATE TO
SEE ALL TERMINALS DEALING WITH ONE OR BOTH VSBY AND LOW CIGS
IMPACTS. VSBYS COULD EVEN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1/4SM FOR BTR AND HUM
AND ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE CIGS DOWN TO LIFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN
VLIFR. BY 15/16Z ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE BACK IN VFR STATUS BUT
CIGS COULD HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER IN COME LOCATIONS. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS BACK IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WINDS WILL TAKE MORE OF AN ONSHORE DIRECTION
AND WILL REMAIN ONSHORE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR ALL
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS 48 TO 60 HOURS OUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
HIGH IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES AND WE WILL SEE ONSHORE RETURN
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY MORNING. /CAB/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP DURING A SHORT WINDOW SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND IT ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST IS
ADVERTISING MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20 TO NEAR 30 PERCENT RANGE
NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. THE CONCERN IS TYPICALLY MODELS AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING/DRYING BEHIND THESE EARLY SPRING FRONTS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
THE MIN RH VALUES COULD BE LOWER. AS FOR WINDS, WE ARE LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
MORNING AND THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINE THE LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG WINDS WITH THE LACK OF
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED DROUGHT WE ARE EXPERIENCING AND THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LUCKILY THIS IS A SMALL WINDOW AS WE
WILL QUICKLY START TO RECOVER ON SUNDAY. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034-035-
046>048-056>060-065>067-085-086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ530-
532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
FIRE WEATHER...CAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page