814
FXUS64 KLIX 261842
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
142 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
GOING INTO TONIGHT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AT AROUND OR JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL
ALSO BE ANY FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE FROM THE ONGOING MARSH FIRES MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPER FOG. IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ALREADY UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA (OUTSIDE
OF MARINE ZONES) TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A FOGGY MORNING
COMMUTE THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IS GOING
TO BE CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
"WELL ABOVE AVERAGE" DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES CONSIDERING
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROJECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS AND THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS A BIT MORE MODEST, BUT IT WILL DROP OUR TEMPS
DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
GOING INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ALOFT WE WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS, FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). THE
DRY AIR DOESN'T LINGER TOO LONG. ON SUNDAY A RETURN FLOW TAKES
SHAPE BRINGING IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. THERE IS ALSO A BIT
OF A WEAK QPF SIGNAL ON SUNDAY WHERE WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN.
GOING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
QPF SIGNAL IS MODEST, BUT CERTAINLY NOT ZERO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY ESPECIALLY STARTING ON
MONDAY WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND STRONGER RETURN FLOW PRESENT AT THE
SURFACE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. IFR OR LOWER
VIS/CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE END OF THE
CYCLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH SPREADS EAST OF THE REGION SURFACE WINDS
HAVE MADE A TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY OR ONSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO HAZARDOUS
THRESHOLDS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES AND WE WILL SEE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY MORNING. (FRYE)
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP DURING A SHORT WINDOW SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND IT ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST IS
ADVERTISING MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20 TO NEAR 30 PERCENT RANGE
NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. THE CONCERN IS TYPICALLY MODELS AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING/DRYING BEHIND THESE EARLY SPRING FRONTS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
THE MIN RH VALUES COULD BE LOWER. AS FOR WINDS, WE ARE LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
MORNING AND THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINE THE LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG WINDS WITH THE LACK OF
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED DROUGHT WE ARE EXPERIENCING AND THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. LUCKILY THIS IS A SMALL WINDOW AS WE WILL
QUICKLY START TO RECOVER ON SUNDAY. CAB/FRYE
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-076-079>086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ530-
532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-080>082.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
FIRE WEATHER...CAB
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