842
FXUS64 KLIX 102336
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
636 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS AND THOSE OPERATING SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
- SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A LOT OF OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES LIKE SPORTS AND
FESTIVALS, SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS ARE PRESENT.
MAKE SURE YOU ARE USING SUNSCREEN AND DRINKING ENOUGH WATER.
- POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST WITH OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST, BUT IS MORE OF A
STRETCHING THAN DEPARTURE. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH MOISTURE IN THE
AREA, SO HUMID FEELING, BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. THIS GIVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60-65 RANGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY KEEP THE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME, WITH 1 INCH
BEING PRETTY MUCH RIGHT AT THE DAILY MEAN. EVEN THE WETTEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY BRIEFLY REACH THE 75TH PERCENTILE (1.2-1.3
INCHES).
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ON PRETTY MUCH ANY DAY, THE
ONLY DAY THAT MIGHT HAVE A MENTION IN THE GRIDS IS NEXT THURSDAY,
AND THAT IS ONLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WELL
NORTHWEST OF A MCCOMB TO BATON ROUGE LINE, AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS, WITH A TOTALLY DRY
PERIOD A MORE LIKELY SOLUTION. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (5-10F
ABOVE) WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MIGHT FALL A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHERE IN
OUR CWA A LOCATION REACHES 90 DEGREES NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BE
EARLY, BUT NOT RECORD-BREAKING UNLESS IT IS MCCOMB. THE AVERAGE
FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY AT OUR CLIMATE SITES OCCURS IN MID-MAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. (RW/SCHLOTZ)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR AT ISSUANCE TIME. THERE HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN AREAS OF LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. THIS
HAS PRIMARILY BEEN NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
OF KMCB. EXPECTATION IS THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELING HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT IN QUITE AS MUCH AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. MOST OF THE AGREEMENT IS IN A TRIANGLE BETWEEN KASD-
KHDC-KMCB, AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL TERMINALS.
FOR NOW, WILL INDICATE TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES IN SEVERAL
FORECASTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, BUT WON'T RULE OUT LIFR OR WORSE.
POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS TO DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE HIGH CLOUD COVER OR
WINDS NOT DECOUPLING. ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z, IF NOT SOONER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST PUTS US ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
DRIVING SPEEDS OF 15+ KT GIVING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AT
LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO DIMINISH AT LEAST A BIT AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES AND THE HEADLINES WILL BE RENEWED IF NECESSARY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS
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