748
FXUS64 KLIX 111024
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
524 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS AND THOSE OPERATING SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS.
- SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A LOT OF OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES LIKE SPORTS AND
FESTIVALS, SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS ARE PRESENT.
MAKE SURE YOU ARE USING SUNSCREEN AND DRINKING ENOUGH WATER.
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS SPREADING
RAPIDLY NW THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
SUNRISE THEN DISSIPATE BY 9AM.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE WEATHER WE HAD YESTERDAY MINUS THE RAIN TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE SAME THAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE GULF
SENDING EASTERLY TO SE WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TO ALSO KEEP ANY REAL CHANCE OF SH/TS AWAY AS
WELL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
GULF TUESDAY EVENING, AND WILL SETTLE A BIT SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY ERODE THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW.
AS WE SAW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE, WE CAN STILL GET AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE MAY
NOT BE EVEN AS ABUNDANT AS IT WAS ON FRIDAY, SO THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. IF THERE IS ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO BE ON THURSDAY, WHEN THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTION FROM FRIDAY
MORNING SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY AID DEVELOPMENT.
THE LAST FEW OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS INDICATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY, AND THE WPC QPF FORECAST IS DRY AS WELL.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (5-10F ABOVE) WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST MIGHT FALL A
DEGREE OR TWO SHORT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA A LOCATION REACHES 90
DEGREES NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BE EARLY, BUT NOT RECORD-BREAKING
UNLESS IT IS MCCOMB. MOST LIKELY DAYS WOULD BE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
THE AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY AT OUR CLIMATE SITES OCCURS IN MID-
MAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. (RW)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BEFORE MID MORNING
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AT
15+ KT ARE PRESENT AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS WINDS
EASE TO AROUND 10KT.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>058-071-076-079>086-089.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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