212
FXUS64 KLIX 120625
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
125 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS AND THOSE OPERATING SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS.
- SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AT LEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A LOT OF OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES LIKE
SPORTS AND FESTIVALS, SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS
ARE PRESENT. MAKE SURE YOU ARE USING SUNSCREEN AND DRINKING
ENOUGH WATER.
- POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG TOWARD SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
TEMPS WOULD HAVE TO GET DOWN TO 52F TO REACH THE DENSE FOG POINT
THIS MORNING. 55F IS THE FOG PRODUCTION POINT THIS MORNING. WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME HAZINESS THIS MORNING BUT DENSE FOG WILL
BE HARD TO GET SINCE THE TEMP WIL NEED TO FALL ALMOST 10F WHICK
COULD OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE THE PEARL RIVER REGION. IF FOG
CAN'T FOR DUE TO SFC TEMPS, THEN THIS STRAT DECK COULD COME IN AS
A LOW LEVEL CANOPY RIGHT AT SUNRISE. THIS IS ONE OF THE HARDEST
THINGS IN FOG FORECASTING, WHETHER A STRAT DECK COMES IN AT THE
SFC OR AT 200FT SINCE THEY BOTH MIRROR EACH OTHER IN BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL AND KINEMATIC STRUCTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RESOLVE
THE FOG ISSUE EACH MORNING, ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
LOWER CHANCE OF FOG PRODUCTION OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BIGGER PICTURE IS BASIC, RELATIVELY NO RAIN AND REMAINING BREEZY
AND WARM BUT NOT CRAZY HOT. BUT IF YOU LIKE CRAZY HOT, I HEAR
AUGUST IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY,
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION, FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES NEXT
SATURDAY COULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BY
LATE NEXT WEEKEND, SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY, WITH AT LEAST SOME
MINOR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT THIS POINT, WE'RE PROBABLY ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 20 POP.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (5-10F ABOVE) WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST MIGHT FALL A
DEGREE OR TWO SHORT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA A LOCATION REACHES 90
DEGREES NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BE EARLY, BUT NOT RECORD-BREAKING
UNLESS IT IS MCCOMB. MOST LIKELY DAYS WOULD BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY AT OUR CLIMATE SITES
OCCURS IN MID-MAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. (RW)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FG MOVING IN RIGHT AT SUNRISE OR THIS
COULD COME IN AS A LOW DECK, EITHER OF WHICH WILL CAUSE IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS. EITHER OF THESE WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING BRINGING VFR FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AT
15+ KT WILL REMAIN THROUGH TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASE
TO AROUND 10KT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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