141
FXUS64 KLIX 141046
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
546 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 445 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE
SPORTS AND FESTIVALS.
- LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING PARTICULARLY
NEAR WATER BODIES. CHANCES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO
DENSE FOG EXISTS WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
LARGE SCALE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG.
THIS IS QUITE COMMON FOR SPRING, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ACTUAL RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS MEANS THAT MOST, AND LATELY, ALL OF THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKNESSES IS HELD FARTHER WEST AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE, BUT THIS IS NOT SEEN IN THE
SHORT RANGE. A DRY, RELATIVELY WARM, BUT COMFORTABLE TEMPS DOES
HELP THOSE WHO ARE ENJOYING THE OUTDOORS AND THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
ONE OF THE BEST FOR OUR AREA. BUT, WE ALL KNOW WHAT IS JUST AROUND
THE CORNER, ENJOY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF
FRIDAY EVENING. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNSET MONDAY. WHILE THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, IT WILL STILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES (90TH PERCENTILE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW LEVEL FORCING LOOKS RATHER
WEAK. WHILE IT MAY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING, IT
LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT, MAYBE NOT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH INTO
THE GULF, BUT SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH
TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES SUNDAY OR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRYING MIGHT MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 10 OR SO, BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STARTS PUSHING BACK TO
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC HIGH FOR FRIDAY IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE, SO A 90 DEGREE HIGH AT BATON
ROUGE STILL LOOKS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, UNSURPRISINGLY, WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER. IF WE STAY CLOUDY, HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED, AND
LOW TEMPERATURES RAISED, AS THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS DEW POINTS ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES HIGHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. (RW)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE LARGEST TERMINALS ARE VFR, WITH EXCEPTION OF MCB, IN BOTH
CIGS AND VIS BUT THERE ARE SOME MVFR AND IFR VIS AND CIGS
IMPACTING SMALLER SITES. THIS COULD OCCUR AT THE LARGER TERMINALS
FOR A VERY SHORT DURATION THIS MORNING BUT THE CHANCES OF IT
OCCURRING IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT SHOW IN CURRENT TAF PACK. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS MOVING IN TOWARD SUNRISE WED MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A COLD FRONT
COMING ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE
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