542
FXUS64 KLIX 142328
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
628 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE
SPORTS AND FESTIVALS.
- LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING PARTICULARLY
NEAR WATER BODIES AND INLAND MISSISSIPPI. CHANCES FOR HIGHER
COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO DENSE FOG EXISTS WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE SHORT TERM PATTERN WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE H5 RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
EVENTUALLY, THE RIDGE DOES SLIDE TO THE WEST A BIT ALLOWING FOR
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE OVER THE CWFA FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NOT ONLY A DRY
FORECAST, BUT A MUCH WARMER ONE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
END OF THE CYCLE WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE REGION APPROACHING 90F. OUTSIDE OF
TEMPERATURES, MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES NORTH OF I10/12 WILL BE ABOVE DENSE FOG
THRESHOLDS...AT LEAST THAT IS AS OF NOW. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NEED A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IF FOG MATERIALIZES A
BIT MORE DENSE. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND EYES WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS A FRONT
AND PARENT TROUGH MOVE EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY IN THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. QPF SIGNAL AMONG THE GLOBALS AND RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN LACKLUSTER AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN THAT WAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS RATHER CLOSE, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE RANGE. HOWEVER, DESPITE NEEDING SOME RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT BE VERY
FRUITFUL...AT LEAST AS IT STANDS NOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR
LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT THANKS TO THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL
LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AND BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
LATE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TO MORE AVERAGE VALUES. OTHERWISE,
OUTSIDE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A WIND SHIFT
THAT'S ABOUT IT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
FORECAST TERMINALS GENERALLY VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME,
ALTHOUGH KGPT HAD A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN025 IN THE LAST HOUR. THAT
COULD RECUR BRIEFLY BEFORE MOST OF THE DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD ALSO PRIMARILY BE VFR. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z AS HAS HAPPENED AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
ARE LIKELY TO BE VISIBILITIES AT KMCB FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 13Z. ANY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z OR
EARLIER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A COLD FRONT
COMING ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE MORE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LEADING TO CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR
EVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
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