093
FXUS64 KLIX 152327
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
627 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE
SPORTS AND FESTIVALS.
- PATCH DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW THROUGH MIDMORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
1 SM, SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY. LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS PATTERN, LOOKING AT THE MODELS. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOONS, BUT WON'T LIKELY HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL. ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO ADVECT WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST BIG WARM SPELL WE HAVE HAD, MAKE SURE TO
STAY HYDRATED IF YOU WILL BE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MSW
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
TREND CHANGES OR CONTINUES, RAINFALL COULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
ARE EXPECTING AT THE CURRENT TIME. REGARDLESS, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
CURRENTLY, GIVEN HIGH PWS (1.4-1.6 INCHES) WITH LIMITED LIFTING,
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS (40-60MPH), BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AND DRIER ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN ESPECIALLY MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 20S, SO DEPENDING ON THE WINDS, WE WILL NEED TO BE ON
THE LOOKOUT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE AND
A SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION FORMS. AS THE INVERSION
DEEPENS, LOW STRATUS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP AT 300 TO 500 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z AT MCB, BTR, AND HDC.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN THE LOW
STRATUS SPREADING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND IMPACTING MSY,
HUM, AND ASD INTERMITTENTLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AT MCB, BTR, AND
HDC, THE STRONGER INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR WITH VISIBILTIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. HOWEVER,
HDC AND MCB COULD SEE PERIODS WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BELOW 1
MILE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AT 12Z. OVERALL, A PERIOD OF IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE 12Z
TO 14Z PERIOD. ONLY NEW AND GPT SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR OR BETTER
STATUS. AFTER 14Z, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW ANY FOG AND STRATUS TO QUICKLY CLEAR AND
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO
THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A COLD FRONT COMING ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHERE MORE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LEADING TO
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR EVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...MSW
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