787
FXUS64 KLIX 160509
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1209 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE SPORTS AND
FESTIVALS.
- MOST VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 1/4 MILE, SO A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT, PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD
OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE THIS AND FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AROUND
RIVER SYSTEMS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
DIDDO AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO ADD SOME INTEREST TO THE FCAST BY SUNSET SATURDAY. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA AROUND SUNSET
SAT EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME SH/TS ASSOCIATED AS IT ENTERS THE
AREA. BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO DECAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SE. AFTER
SUNSET AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT SAT, A NEW SHORT WAVE WILL KICK OUT OF
THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE SFC
THERMAL BELT, WHICH WILL HELP GIVE SOME EXTRA HELP TO LIFT,
PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SH/TS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN. BUT AS THE
FRONT OUT PACES THIS DISTURBANCE, THE AREA OF SH/TS WILL BECOME
ELEVATED AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE SUNRISE SUN. TH STORMS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL AT FIRST RETAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE GETTING
SQUEEZED VERTICALLY, BRINGING RAIN AMOUNTS LOWER AS IT MOVES SE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE AREA OF SH/TS WILL BE ALLEVIATED BY
NOON SUNDAY, SO A QUICK DECLINE AS WE CROSS THE SUNRISE HOUR
SUNDAY. BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE NEXT THING NOTICED WILL BE THE COOL
DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT
LOWS WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING
WITH MID 50S AND AROUND 50F RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BRIEFLY
SURGE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED BY
THE APPROACHING FRONT TO CREATE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FORTUNATELY, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR WILL BE LARGELY NON-EXISTENT.
AS A RESULT, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTEAD, SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD EXISTS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT VARIES BY A FEW HOURS, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WEIGHTING TOWARD READINGS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING RAINFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-10 SHOULD ALSO BE QUICKLY CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
POOL BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE, BUT VERY PLEASANT, AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF STRONG
NEGATIVE VORTICITY AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND DEEP LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. THE END RESULT WILL BE LARGELY CLEAR
SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. THE ONE
AREA OF POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT MIXES
DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HOW STRONG WINDS MAY BE AT
THAT TIME. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE
NORTHSHORE OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, AND THESE VALUES MAY BE ON THE
HIGHER END. WINDS ARE ALSO PROJECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 15 MPH, SO SOME
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF THE LOWER HUMIDITY
TRENDS CHANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A GOOD 25 TO 30 DEGREES EACH
DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS A STRONG
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
WILL PLACE THE REGION IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM
THE GULF. A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA E AIR AND HIGHER PWATS WILL FEED
INTO EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME,
AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER, JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS AS NOTED BY SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND
PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO FORM DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AT 700MB
WILL PROHIBIT DEEPER CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AXIS FEEDS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
WARM ON THE BACK OF THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF WITH READINGS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERALL, A RETURN TO A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. (PG)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR. TONIGHT WILL HAVE
CIGS START OUT IN VFR AND SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE, THEN LOWER TO IFR RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING. VIS
WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH A FEW SITES HAVING IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY AROUND SUNRISE THIS AND FRI MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE MORE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LEADING TO CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES OR EVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...TE
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