253
FXUS64 KLIX 011032 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
532 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A
STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT TO START MAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY EVENING HAS
DISSIPATED, THERE REMAINS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THAT IS
NORTH OF I10 AND WEST OF I55. THESE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME. ALL THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ON TOP OF A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCKED INTO THE ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY LATER
TODAY ONCE THE LOW LEVELS RECOVER...IF THE LOW LEVELS RECOVER.
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED THERE COULD BE
MORE ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING ASCENT MEANING MORE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE. IT APPEARS IN BOTH MESOSCALE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT A BIT NORTHWARD, WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DECENT CHUNK OF
THE CWFA TO BE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR. CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING WILL BE POSSIBLE SO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE
SLIGHTLY LIMITED IN RESPONSE TO THIS, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COUPLE MORE ROUNDS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
FLORIDA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL RECENTLY. ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS MAY ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE UPPER FLOW MEANING
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. SO A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
COULD LEAD TO HYDRO ISSUES. THAT SAID, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOSTLY A WIND AND
HAIL THREAT, HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH A RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL ON
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BOUNDARY, A TORNADO OR TWO
WOULDN'T BE IMPOSSIBLE WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARIES CAN BE INGESTED
INTO STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM FINALLY SPREADS EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO A MORE
NORTHWEST DIRECTION (A DRY FLOW) AND KICK THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHSHORE. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY IS THE
DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MUCH AS 10 TO 12 DEGREES OR SO BELOW EARLY MAY
AVERAGES. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SUNDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM TENNESSEE TO TEXAS
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. AS THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BY TUESDAY, WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. THE SOUTH END OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AIDING
THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTION IS QUICKER THAN THE GFS OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH IMPACTS RAIN CHANCES AND
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEYOND ABOUT TUESDAY. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
GETS, SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY (20-40 PERCENT), AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN, WHICH SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 60. NOT QUITE
AS COOL MONDAY MORNING, THEN RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS 75 TO 80 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WARMING TO AT LEAST
MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. (RW)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED, BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS (USED PROBS). MORE CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITH INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS. VIS ISSUES WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN HEAVIER CONVECTION. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME SITES
SEEING GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING AS A STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS, NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
LATER TODAY, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FORMING OVER THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE
OPEN GULF WATERS. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST, IT WILL HELP DRIVE
THE FRONT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER ALL OF THE WATERS, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY FALL OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND 3 FEET INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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