543
FXUS64 KLIX 011835
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
135 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL IMPACT
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
- STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLET WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING AMPLE
DEEP LAYER FORCING. FURTHER DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA, BUT IT WILL PUSH INLAND TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHSHORE AND RIVER PARISHES. STORM MOTION
WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO THE CONCERN
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES HAS INCREASED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AS BACK BUILDING STORMS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. PROBABILITIES OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE AREAS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SOME
FLOODING ISSUES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS
OF THE RIVER PARISHES AND METRO NEW ORLEANS. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT, A BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER A COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD SHIELD
OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES WILL
NOT BE AS HIGH IN THESE AREAS, A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD STILL FALL BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING.
A LONGWAVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIG INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES IN, THE SOUTHERN
STREAM VORTICITY AND FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD FLORIDA. A
SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP
THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES
BY MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS, BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS THE
REINFORCING FRONT AND LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASS BY. CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE AS SOME COOLER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AND LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE WORKWEEK WILL START OFF QUIET AS A BROAD AND DEEP RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, A STRONG MID-LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND THIS WILL PROHIBIT ANY
RAIN CHANCES FROM DEVELOPING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT MOST, SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL FORM DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.
CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE TRAILING END
OF THE TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL TAP INTO AN INCREASINGLY WARM, MOIST, AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. A REVIEW OF MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS 0-6KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MLCAPE
AVERAGES AROUND 1500 J/KG. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LIMITED, SO
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT FIRE UP. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND WILL REFINE OUR
FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY,
DRY, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE HOLD. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS, BUT DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS
ONE MILE AS THEY PASS THROUGH. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
REFLECTED BY PROB30 AND TEMPO WORDING AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z TOMORROW. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS OF 500 TO
1000 FEET WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER SUNRISE AND SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 15 TO 16Z AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS FORMING OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO THE EAST, IT WILL HELP DRIVE THE FRONT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER ALL OF THE
WATERS, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY FALL OFF TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND 3 FEET INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
REMAIN SO INTO WEDNESDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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