890
FXUS64 KLIX 030509 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1209 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING LOW
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR
WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT AND THE LOW TO MID 50S TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN ON THE BACK OF A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
OVER INLAND AREAS THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. OVERALL, A VERY
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE BEGINNING AND THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RATHER
BENIGN WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND A RELATED STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S EACH OF THESE DAYS WITH NO MORE THAN SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN THE SKY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD WILL WHERE ALL OF THE ACTION TAKES PLACE
AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PASSES
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET, SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
FORCING TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND SPATIAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT RESULTS IN SOME DIFFERENCES ON
WHEN CONVECTIVE IMPACTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING AND DRIER WEATHER ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY. CONVERSELY,
THE GFS INDICATES A SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE AND A SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER FRONT THAT EFFECTIVELY STALLS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT SHIFTING TO
MORE OF A LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENT. GIVEN THESE 12
TO 18 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT AND THE STRENGTH DIFFERENCES OF THE FRONT, THE NBM GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS FAIRLY HIGH POP VALUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THE GREATEST RISK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK.
THE ONE AREA OF CONFIDENCE THAT HAS NOT SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY, IS
THAT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC LEVEL SETUP IS PERFECT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. A 35 TO 45 KNOT 850MB LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS SWING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG UPDRAFT
TILTING AND ROTATION AS EVIDENCED BY BOTH 50 TO 60 KNOTS OF 0-3KM
SPEED SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PEAKING AT BETWEEN 150
AND 200 M2/S2. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MLCAPE
VALUES WILL SURGE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING THE DAY AND MUCAPE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG AT NIGHT. THE ONE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.0
C/KM, BUT THIS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROBUST
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. EXACT CONVECTIVE MODE IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN, BUT STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT ARE ALL IN THE CARDS WITH THIS EVENT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND FIRM UP THE TIMING WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY AND VERY LIGHT...MOSTLY BELOW 10 KNOTS.
(FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. DUE TO THESE WINDS AND THE HAZARDOUS SEAS THEY CREATE, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL BACK
BELOW 3 FEET BY MONDAY. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT
WILL THEN SLIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ529-
531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ531>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...PG
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