646
FXUS64 KLIX 030627
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
127 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE WEATHER MOSTLY BENIGN TODAY AND TOMORROW. SURFACE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO
THE CWFA.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK WILL
REMAIN ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH AGAIN WILL KEEP
A DRY PATTERN OVER THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, GOING INTO LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST, WHICH
WILL TRANSITION OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE START OF A
WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH MAXIMUM
DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING FROM THE 70S EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK THE
FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. WITH THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BUT OVERALL THE MAIN PATTERN
HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE GUIDANCE, ITS MAINLY SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DETAIL ISSUES BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THIS TIME FRAME THOSE DIFFERENCES MEAN A LOT. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORK TOWARDS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AND THAT WILL BRING SOME STORMS. MODELS EARLIER HAD TIMING
ISSUES OF AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS AND WITH THAT THE PLAN WAS TO MAINLY
STICK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW UNTIL WE COULD GET A BETTER HAND ON
THINGS.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING THIS IS WHEN THINGS GET A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. WE WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT THERE ARE A FEW
LITTLE DETAILS WE WILL NEED TO WATCH, FIRST THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND HOW IT EJECTS AND WHERE IT MERGES/PHASES WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM. DOES IT SHOOT MORE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OR DOES IT EJECT MORE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ALL MAY BE SOMEWHAT DICTATED
BY THE 2ND THING WE NEED TO WATCH AND THAT IS ACTUALLY A S/W DIVING
OUT OF CANADA TUES/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IF IT DIVES
MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND DOWN THE ROCKIES IT MAY LEAD TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN BUT THAT WOULD TAKE MORE OF THE ENERGY NORTH OF
THE AREA AND SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONT. IF IT DIVES MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND JUST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WE WOULD BE MORE UNDER ZONAL TO SUBTLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND THAT DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WOULD TAKE A
SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND THUS PROVIDE MORE FORCING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALSO CAUSE THE FRONT TO BE FASTER.
NO MATTER WHAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WILL BE QUITE JUICED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S POSSIBLY EVEN MID
70S WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP LEAD TO A RATHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1K J/KG AND LIKELY EVEN ABV 1500 J/KG.
INSTABILITY IS NOT THE ISSUE, THE ISSUE MAY BE FORCING AND
KINEMATICS ALONG WITH SOME TIMING/GETTING EVERYTHING TO LINE UP.
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA
SO WE MAY JUST BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE RRQ OF THE JET. IN THE LL THE
LL JET WILL GET GOING BUT CURRENT THINKING IS IT MAY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA A LITTLE TOO FAST PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND THEN EAST IN AL. THIS PUTS MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE TAIL
OF THE LL JET WHICH IS NOT NECESSARILY THE MOST FAVORABLE SPOT. ONE
THING TO WATCH, LL CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY PEAK OUT OF OUR AREA
JUST AS THE FRONT IS MOVING IN AND WE MOVE UNDER THE THE LEFT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE LL JET. MID LVL FLOW IS THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. IF WE ARE UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW
LIKE THE ECMWF HAS THEN WE WILL SEE MORE FORCING AND STRONGER MID
LVL FLOW WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE. IF THE
EJECTING S/W PHASES AND MOVES NORTHEAST WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE
TYPICAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THEN LOOK FOR A SLOWER APPROACHING
FRONT, WEAKER FORCING, AND A MILDER EVENT. THAT SAID MAKE NO MISTAKE
THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT HOW MUCH
DOES IT GET INTO OUR CWA IS QUESTIONABLE. AT THIS TIME IF WE DO
HAVE SEVERE WEATHER ALL MODES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SPC DOES HAVE A 15% IN THE DAY 5 OUTLOOK COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA BUT THE UPDATE WILL BE OUT OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST IS QUIET ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY AND VERY LIGHT...MOSTLY BELOW 10 KNOTS.
(FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE WAY DOWN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AND BY WEDNESDAY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LEADING TO LIKELY NEEDING CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES AT LEAST. AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ529-
531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ531>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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