898
FXUS64 KLIX 031806
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY
INHIBIT MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. AT MOST, THERE COULD BE
SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT FORMS BENEATH A STRONG
MID- LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE MID 70S THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IS EXPECTED. THE NBM
HAS SHOWN A HIGH BIAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS, SO THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 50S SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN FOR TONIGHT. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND THE LOW 60S SOUTH OF THE
TIDAL LAKES. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION, AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
ELEVATED IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. A BROKEN
LAYER OF STRATUS MAY FORM AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING WITH BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REASON FOR
THE FRONT STALLING IS THAT THE PARENT TROUGH AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND A MORE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE END RESULT OF THIS CHANGE IS THAT A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTIONS COULD PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA TO END THE WEEK.
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED. A REVIEW
OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE PEAKING AROUND 1500 TO 2000
J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7.0 C/KM. THESE VALUES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 140 KNOT 300MB JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A POTENT 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
FORM AT 850MB OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AS THIS OCCURS, 0-6KM
SPEED SHEAR WILL RISE TO AROUND 60 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, SPEED SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, THE WIND FIELD WILL
EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT TURNING WITH HEIGHT AS NOTED BY 0-3KM SRH
VALUES OF 200 TO 250 M2/S2 OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE
COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA INCLUDING
IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY, ALL
CONVECTIVE MODES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING A RISK OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES, HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY, THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
BE DIMINISHED DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR, BUT HIGH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL BE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT FAST MOVING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS, WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN A REGION OF ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HELP DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH
FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EACH DAY. GIVEN THE
HIGHER PWATS AND MORE SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE, FLOODING WILL
BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TO END THE WEEK DUE TO
THE LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF
THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS. AS THE HIGH PULLS
TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS. FURTHER INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
WATERS AND STALL OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY LEADING TO MORE
VARIABLE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BY FRIDAY, THE WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RETURN.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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