985
FXUS64 KLIX 051053
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
553 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TRANSPORTING THE MUGGIES BACK TO
THE AREA AS MOISTURE RISES ALONG WITH DAILY HIGHS. BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL COME TO THE RESCUE AS FAR AS HEAT IS CONCERNED. THERE WILL BE
SOME CLOUDS STARTING TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT THE MAIN
SUN BLOCKING CLOUD COVER DOES NOT SHOW UP TIL THURSDAY. WE WILL
HAVE TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID 80S FOR WED BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER SETS IN. NOW FOR THE TANGIBLE WX. RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE
NOTICED TO OUR NW WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT PULSES
MOVE OVER AND ALONG ITS AXIS TODAY AND WED AS IT SLOOOOOWWWWWLLY
MOVES SE. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE
THE FRONT GETS CAUGHT UP IN PARALLEL FLOW, WHICH IS WHAT WE CAN
ALREADY SEE OVER THE SW CONUS TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
BE SLUGGISH AND STALL SOMEWHERE OVER OUR AREA, LIKELY AT THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST THERMAL GRADIENT EXITS. BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE NO
FORCING AND NO MORE PULSES MOVING OVER THE FRONT, THE CONVECTION
WILL FADE WED. THU WILL BEGIN TO BE A BIT DIFFERENT AS A NEW PULSE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PARALLEL SW FLOW BRINGING SH/TS BACK TO LIFE
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY. THESE COULD TRAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS BEFORE IT STARTS MOVING AGAIN, SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ON THU. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ALL MODES. THE
NUMBERS ARE NOT JUMPING OFF THE PAGE WITH RESPECT TO SHEAR NUMBERS
BUT EVERYTHING ELSE IS. AT 21Z THU, CAPE VALUES ARE 3K+, PW VALUES
ARE AROUND 2", AND 3CAPE VALUES ARE SITTING NEAR A BUCK 50.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO LOW ENOUGH TO GET THINGS STARTED BUT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE THEM VOLATILE AS WELL. THIS LINE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP JUST NW OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT SE AFTERWARDS.
EVENTHOUGH THERE ARE HIGH NUMBERS, THERE NEEDS TO BE SOMETHING TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE NUMBERS. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL
DEVELOPS, BUT FOR NOW IT DOES LOOK AS IF A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD PLAY A BIT ROUGH THU.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DEFINITELY THE
LEAST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT THAT DOES NOT
NECESSARILY MEAN QUIET. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVERYTHING HAS TRENDED A TOUCH SLOWER AS WELL
WITH RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THAT SAID THEY ALL ARE ADVERTISING THINGS SLACKING OFF SOME FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT NEVER COMPLETELY DRY US OUT WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. I DID LIKE WHAT THE
19Z NBM HAD FOR POPS THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO 13Z HOWEVER, EXPECT
THE NEW 01Z NBM TO COME IN SIMILAR TO THE 19Z AND WPC WILL LIKELY
STICK WITH THAT.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE OUR FRONT FINALLY GETS ONE LAST PUSH INTO THE GULF IF IT
HASN'T ALREADY. IF THE FRONT HAS A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE NORTH
DUE TO CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IT WILL LIKELY NUDGE
SOUTH A TOUCH FASTER BUT GIVEN THE TREND IN THE MODELS WHICH HAS
BEEN A HAIR SLOWER FOR THE LAST 60 HOURS, NOT ANTICIPATING A
FASTER FRONT. THAT SAID WE ARE PROBABLY AT THE END OF ANY SLOWING
IN THE MODELS AS THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO GET A BETTER SAMPLE OF OUR
SYSTEMS AND HONE IN ON THE FORECAST MUCH LIKE THEY DID LAST WEEK.
SO WHAT ARE WE LOOKING, THE FINAL S/W IN THIS LATEST SERIES OF WAVES
SHOULD FINALLY TRAVERSE THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY HELP TO DRIVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH INTO THE GULF
FINALLY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE SLIDING ESE
THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW
FRIDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THE MID LVL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WESTERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN AS THAT DAMPENING S/W MOVES THROUGH. THE
PERSISTENT MID LVL LOW THATS BEEN OVER THE BAJA RECENTLY QUICKLY
REDEVELOPS SATURDAY AND STARTS TO SLIDE SW ALLOWING THE VERY BROAD
L/W TROUGHING PATTERN TO SET BACK UP OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND THIS
JUST PUT US BACK UNDER ZONAL FLOW AND MAYBE EVEN WEAKLY WSW AS A
VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS TRIES TO DEVELOP/CONSOLIDATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. THIS DOES A FEW THINGS, FIRST
WITH NO REAL CLEAN S/W PASSAGE THE DEEPER MOISTURE ONLY GETS
SUPPRESSED TO BASICALLY THE COAST/NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY. THIS MEANS
THAT DEEPER RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO READY TO QUICKLY
SURGE BACK NORTH AND AS WEAK WSW FLOW DEVELOPS IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY, AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. THE
OTHER THING WE WILL SEE LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS AND WE EVENTUALLY SEE A SFC TROUGH STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY SET
UP OVER THE GULF AND INTO OUR AREA. WITH OUR FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THAT FAR INTO THE GULF THIS WILL ALSO QUICKLY ALLOW MOISTURE
RECOVER AND IT WOULDN'T BE A SHOCK TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHAT THIS ALL ENDS UP DOING IS IT SETS UP ANOTHER SCENARIO FOR A
ANOTHER SHOT OF STORMS POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/W THAT WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE L/W TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. TIMING THIS DISTURBANCE AND AN EXACT STRENGTH/TRACK
OF IT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE IT
FINALLY COMES ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST.
SO OVERALL FOR THE WEEKEND, IT IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS NICE AND
PLEASANT AS EARLIER THOUGHT. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE TOO
IMPACTFUL AND THE MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND SHOULD STILL BE DECENT BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE DRAB WITH CLOUDS AND SOME OFF AND ON SHOWERS
BEFORE ANOTHER BOUT OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY. FROM A POSITIVE STANDPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL SO NO 90S OUT THERE. /CAB/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WITH
CIGS MOVING IN BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR. TONIGHT WILL BE DIFFERENT
AS THESE CIGS LOWER TO IFR LEVELS AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR AT LEAST MCB AND MAY BRIEFLY DIP FOR A FEW OTHER TEMINALS
TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT MOST SITES SHOULD STAY IN MVFR. VIS COULD
DIP INTO MVFR TO IFR AS WELL AT MCB TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOWER
CIGS, ELSEWHERE VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS PROMPTING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE WATERS AND STALL OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BY
FRIDAY, THE WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL RETURN.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page