322
FXUS64 KLIX 052349
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WHERE A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL UP TO 1", AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES ON THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO STREET FLOODING ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND LIKELY
CONCLUDING ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE
AND SEVERITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WE CONTINUE THE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A WELL-
ESTABLISHED BERMUDA HIGH IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE BACK TO THE
AREA AND MORNING TEMPERATURES WON'T BE FEELING SO CRISP AS WE MOVE
INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY INTO
THE 60S WITH EXCEPTION TO SW MS, BUT DEEP MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOW 70S IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE THERMODYNAMIC FUEL FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO
FLARE UP AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT
FROM AN ENCROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SW UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES SUPPORT OF VERTICAL GROWTH OF UPDRAFTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE KEY ELEMENT WHEN EXAMINING THE JET
DYNAMICS NECESSARY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA IS THAT THE
CORE OF THE JET AND BEST FORCING REMAINS DISPLACED NORTH OF
ARKLAMISS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN ORGANIZATION AND GROWTH OF UPDRAFTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12. THE PRIMARY
QUESTION WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS HOW QUICKLY THESE UPDRAFTS CAN
ORGANIZE IN SOUTHWEST MS AND ADJACENT PARISHES. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS MOST OF THESE UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REALIZE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS UNTIL THEY
CAN MATURE MORE FULLY FURTHER INTO ARKLAMISS AND CENTRAL MS. AS
SUCH, THE PRIMARY AND MORE CERTAINTY WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND REACH THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR AROUND LATE
MORNING. WEAKLY STABLE AIR AND THE INITIAL FORCING OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE DEPARTING IN ADDITION TO VEERED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WILL RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THIS FRONT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER,
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE VIA SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON
HEATING COULD REIGNITE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY
BE A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH ALMOST NO
TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS PER THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
WHERE THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DIVERGE AMONG THE GLOBAL AND LONG-RANGE
CAM GUIDANCE IS THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT STALLS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
INITIATING WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY STJ FLOW ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRIMARY DISCREPANCIES RIGHT NOW ARE WITH REGARDS
TO RETURN FLOW THAT BEGINS AS THE DECAYING FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE STJ
INITIATES NEW CONVECTION. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG, DEEPER
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER. MEANWHILE, OTHER GUIDANCE
KEEPS CONVECTION WEAKER ON FRIDAY AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE
FLOW ON SATURDAY PROVIDES A MORE SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
BEYOND SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BUT THINGS
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LARGELY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS ARE IN VFR STATUS AND MOST SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z (HUM IS IN MVFR DUE TO CIGS BUT THAT
MAY BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH OUT THE EVENING). AFTER 6Z WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CIGS BUILD DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BTR, HUM AND
MCB LIKELY DROPPING INTO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
MOST OF THE MORNING. CIGS COULD BUILD DOWN TO AS LOW AS 1500 FT
BUT LIKELY HANG AROUND 1800-2200. ELSEWHERE HDC LIKELY HAS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IMPACTS FROM LOWERING CIGS. ALL OTHER
TERMINALS VERY WELL COULD SEE BKN CIGS IN MVFR STATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK OFF SOME
THIS EVENING AND CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE BUT THAT MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS WE COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS
REBUILD IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS AND
STALL OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5
TO 15 KNOTS. BY FRIDAY, THE WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RETURN. STORM COVERAGE OVER
THE MARINE WATERS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND WATERSPOUTS. WINDS AND SEAS
AROUND THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER THAN WHAT THE FORECAST
REFLECTS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TJS
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