656
FXUS64 KLIX 061825
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
125 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND/OR PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PARISHES OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
- REGARDING THE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI. ANY
STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES OF UP TO EF2
INTENSITY. HIGH RAIN RATES COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
- RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES AND CHANGES AS SPECIFIC TIMING AND THREAT
DETAILS REGARDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP, AND WE'RE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BEST FORCING FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, MORE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT FOR THAT BETTER FORCING TO INCLUDE OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST
UPDATE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DID EXPAND THE ENHANCED RISK
AREA TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE AND THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS DISCRETE CELLS OR WHETHER THEY WILL CONGEAL
INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER OR QUASI-LINEAR MODE. IF THE LATTER,
INDIVIDUAL STORM INFLOW MAY BE DISRUPTED BY OTHER NEARBY STORMS,
WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF MOST CELLS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN SINCE THERE WON'T BE A HUGE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
"LAUNCH PAD" AND WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MATERIALIZES.
WHERE EXACTLY THAT DELINEATION OCCURS IS STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COULD BE THE LAUNCH PAD, OR IT COULD
HAVE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.
REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, SIMILAR TO THE SEVERE THREAT,
THE GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA, BUT ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WOULD PUT SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI. ONCE AGAIN
WITH THE MODERATE RISK AREA BASICALLY ENDING AT THE FORECAST AREA
BORDER, WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY AS THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT COULD INCREASE QUICKLY WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, FORECAST TOTALS ARE IN THE 0.5-1 INCH RANGE
ACROSS SW MS AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES, TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.1
INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGHER RAIN RATES AND
TOTALS THAT COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING. AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN, EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED
TOMORROW AS THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT SIMILAR OR MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
STILL STALLED NEAR THE COAST AND ANOTHER FAST-MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
RATHER VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THEY'LL BOTH RESULT IN CONTINUED
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH. AM GENERALLY CARRYING HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL SOMEWHAT
COME DOWN TO TIMING AND WHETHER THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. FOR NOW, STAY
TUNED.
THE LATE SUNDAY DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE
GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WOULD MARK AN END TO THE CURRENT ACTIVE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSES CONVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT IFR OR NEAR-IFR CIGS
TO SET IN AS A RESULT OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO THE TERMINALS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO INCLUDE
TEMPO AND/OR PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMES OF IMPACT,
BUT UNDOUBTEDLY AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO CAPTURE SHORT TERM
TRENDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY,
GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A FEW SPOTS COULD GET ABOVE 15
KNOTS SO OPTED TO PUT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
INTERIOR LAKES AND SOUNDS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
COULD TECHNICALLY REACH AT OR ABOVE 15 KNOTS BRIEFLY BUT IT ONLY IS
FOR A RATHER SHORT WINDOW. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS AT OR NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AROUND FRIDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN.
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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