046
FXUS64 KLIX 070537
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1237 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND/OR PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
- RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES AND CHANGES AS SPECIFIC TIMING AND THREAT
DETAILS REGARDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING, WITH TROUGHING FROM
ONTARIO TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
LIX SOUNDINGS AT 21Z AND 00Z HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES, WHICH IS AT THE TOP OF THE CHART CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
EARLY MAY. AIRMASS HAS BEEN UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG ON BOTH SOUNDINGS, AND PLENTY OF SHEAR. THERE HAS
BEEN AMPLE EVIDENCE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OUR CWA. AT 11 PM CDT, THE FRONT WAS ESSENTIALLY FROM SOUTH OF
MERIDIAN TO NEAR MCCOMB AND BATON ROUGE TO NORTH OF LAKE CHARLES.
SOUTH OF THE LINE, DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID 70S. BY THE TIME
ONE GETS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 20, DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
50S. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA EAST OF MCCOMB, WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE FRONT. LIKELY WILL
REMOVE REMAINING MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AND WASHINGTON PARISH
LOUISIANA FROM TORNADO WATCH 189 IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVES INTO ALABAMA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW, IT
WILL ONLY SINK SOUTHWARD SLOWLY AND PROBABLY WON'T REACH THE
LOUISIANA COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. BEYOND THE
CURRENT BATCH OF CONVECTION, THERE'S NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AT
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES TOWARD OUR
AREA. FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY FRIDAY, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH A GOOD BIT
OF DRYING BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB, THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES DOWN TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
BY THE TIME THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES,
BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WON'T BE QUITE AS VOLATILE AS THE
CURRENT AIRMASS. THAT EVENT IS SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TO BECOME A
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER THAN A SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER, WITH
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY, WITH SPOT TOTALS HIGHER.
AFTER THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN BEHIND IT ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT SHOULDN'T BE AS SIGNIFICANT AN EVENT AS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THE
12Z GFS OPERATIONAL IS SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY, WITH THE ECMWF AND NBM NUMBERS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER. THE ONLY SCENARIO THAT WOULD LEAD TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
BEING THAT WARM IS FOR A DRY SLOT (SUNNY SKIES) WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS. RIGHT NOW, THAT LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO, SO
WILL NOT TILT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION. A COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. A MONTH FROM NOW THOSE KIND OF LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A DISTANT MEMORY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
CEILINGS GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR AT FORECAST TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE
TIME. EXPECT THOSE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD. HAVE SCALED
BACK THREAT OF TSRA IN THE NEAR TERM TO KGPT, AND MAY EVEN DROP IT
THERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IF CURRENT STORMS TO THE NORTH DO
NOT SAG ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, JUST SCATTERED SHRA.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING APPARENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MAY EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WINDS CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS,
BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS
AT OR NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
FRIDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN. THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS. A FINAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS ARRIVING FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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