760
FXUS64 KLIX 071833
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
133 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
- THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES AND CHANGES AS THE DETAILS OF THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FIRST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY DEPARTING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SINKING TOWARD THE COAST. AS
THE FRONT LOSES ITS UPPER SUPPORT, IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
LATE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PERIODS AS THE
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA FIRING OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 2 INCHES, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EFFICENT
RAINFALL. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT-ISH PERIOD OF TIME.
THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND/OR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. WE
CONTINUE TO BE OUTLOOKED WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED, THE THREAT LEVEL COULD BE BUMPED
UP TO SLIGHT.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF IT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY,
MARKING A TRANSITION TO A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH NEAR TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR (AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS) THROUGH MOST THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME
OF THE MORE NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN. WINDS
HAVE TURNED GENERALLY NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY, BUT WILL SHIFT TO AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AGAIN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CONTINUE TO WASH OUT NEAR THE
COAST TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL RETURN, AND THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE WATERS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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