506
FXUS64 KLIX 222345
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- TORRENTIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-5" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND
COULD EASILY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAL 7 DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MOST OF THE COUNTRY IS UNDER VARYING PORTIONS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY BETTER FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
MS. HOWEVER, 500MB WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THAT SHORTWAVE WHICH AIDE INTO CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, EACH WFOLIX
SOUNDING MEASURING NEAR RECORD PW FOR THIS TIME IF YEAR. ONE SURPRISE
ON THIS MORNING'S FLIGHT WAS JUST HOW MUCH CAPE WE HAVE THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN FROM MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN PREVIOUSLY
SEEN. LOCALIZED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST CORES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF STORMS MIGHT BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BASED
ON MEAN FLOW MODEL SOUNDING DATA, BUT UPDSHEAR/DOWNSHEAR VECTORS ARE
QUITE CLOSE IN DIRECTION AND BRING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM TRAINING. THAT COMBINED WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
DEFINITELY WOULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MESO AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
LULL IN CONVECTION, LASTING WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MAY BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH NEARLY 100% COVERAGE AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AN UNSETTLED AND MOISTURE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD RIDGING REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING GENERALLY REMAINS IN
PLACE EACH DAY. AS SEEN RECENTLY, SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. RAINFALL COVERAGE MAY FLUCTUATE SOMEWHAT DAY TO DAY
DEPENDING ON SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
FROM PRIOR DAY ACTIVITY, AND SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH. ITS THE SUNDAY IMPULSE THAT IS FORECAST TO
BRING SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BUT
LOWS ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HENCE
NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, ISOLATED
NUISANCE FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM ASD TO HDC WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AT A
MINIMUM. TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN PLACE THROUGH 04Z AT THESE TERMINALS
TO REFLECT THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE RISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AS A RAIN COOLED AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS.
THIS MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALSO PROMOTE SOME LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW AT MCB, HDC, AND BTR
RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR IMPACTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. BY
14Z, DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START FORMING, AND
ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE PROB30 WORDING IN PLACE TO REFLECT THIS
CONVECTIVE RISK TOMORROW. ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AT AN HOUR OR LESS, BUT PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE TIME. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RIGHT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. PERIODS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
OPEN GULF WATERS. AS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER THE BULK OF
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN INLAND. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...ME
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